[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 23 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 24 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.9 0213UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0956UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1158UT possible lower European
M1.0 1635UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
X2.0 1927UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 210/161
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Feb was at the R3 level
due to an X2.0 flare at 23/1927UT. In addition there were four
M-class flares. An M4.9 flare at 23/0213UT, an M1.0 flare at
23/0956UT, an M1.6 flare at 23/1158UT and an M1.0 flare at 23/1635UT.
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. Newly numbered AR4001 (N24W76, beta) was responsible
for the X2.0 flare and three of the M-class flares on 23-Feb,
this region has since rotated off the visible solar disk. AR3998
(S14W25, beta) showed spot development and was responsible for
the other M-class flare of the UT day. AR4002 (N13E08, beta),
AR4004 (S14E60, beta) and AR4006 (N17E59, beta) also showed spot
development on 23-Feb. The largest and most magnetically complex
region on the solar disk is AR4000 (N18W18, beta-gamma-delta)
which showed some trailer decay on the UT day but retains a delta
spot. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 24-26 Feb. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 23-Feb. S0
conditions are expected on 24-26 Feb, with a chance of S1 on
24-Feb due to recently rotated off AR4001. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A disappearing solar filament is visible
in H-Alpha, SDO and GOES SUVI imagery at around N41E11 from 23/0649UT.
No associated CME is visible in available coronagraph imagery.
An eruption at around N25 off the west limb is visible in GOES
SUVI and SDO imagery from 23/1927UT, associated with the X2.0
flare at 23/1927UT. A fast CME is visible in SOHO imagery from
23/2124UT. Limited images are available at time of writing but
preliminary modelling suggests this CME will impact Earth at
1500UT on 25-Feb. More robust analysis will be performed when
more imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed increased
slightly on 23-Feb. The wind speed mostly ranged between 290
km/s and 370 km/s. The current wind speed is around 340 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -10
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels on 24-Feb. There is a chance of an increase on 25-Feb
due to a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. A further
increase is expected on 26-Feb due to high speed wind stream
effects from an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22100002
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 4 22100103
Townsville 3 22100112
Learmonth 5 32100003
Alice Springs 4 22100003
Gingin 3 22100002
Canberra 2 12100002
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 22100002
Hobart 3 22100002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 22100001
Casey 15 34520123
Mawson 9 43311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2001 2012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 5 G0
25 Feb 12 G0, chance of G1
26 Feb 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Feb. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 observed at Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 24-Feb. G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 25-26 Feb due to anticipated
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
23-Feb, with mildly degraded conditions observed at the start
of the UT day. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
24-26 Feb, with minor degradations possible at high latitudes
on 26-Feb due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Feb 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Feb 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on
22 February and is current for 22-24 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 23-Feb in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values. Sporadic E was observed at Townsville during
local day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 24-26 Feb. Minor shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 34300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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