[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 22 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 23 10:30:52 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 199/151
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Feb was at the R0 level
with two high C-class flares observed. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and five unnumbered
regions. AR3998 (S14W10, beta-delta) and AR4000 (N18W06, beta-gamma-delta)
showed significant spot development over the UT day and are magnetically
complex. AR3996 (S17W32, beta) showed development in its trailer
spots but remains magnetically simple. AR3989 (N19W93, alpha)
was responsible for the largest C-class flares of the UT day,
but is soon to rotate off the solar disk. All other numbered
regions are either stable or in decay. Two unnumbered regions
with beta magnetic characteristics have recently developed on
the solar disk at around N18E23 and S04E60. Three other unnumbered
regions have recently rotated onto the solar disk at around N12E55,
N20E85 and S11E80, all with beta magnetic classification. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 23-25 Feb. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 22-Feb, with
a very slight increase in >10MeV proton flux. S0 conditions are
expected on 23-25 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Feb was steady, mostly ranging
between 285 km/s and 360 km/s and is currently near 300 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels over 23-24 Feb. There is a chance of an increase on 25-Feb
due to high speed wind stream effects from a large coronal hole
in the southern hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21021012
Cocos Island 2 21011001
Darwin 3 11021012
Townsville 4 21121012
Learmonth 4 22122002
Alice Springs 3 20021012
Gingin 2 21011001
Canberra 3 20021012
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 21121002
Hobart 3 21021012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 20032001
Casey 11 33422122
Mawson 15 43223115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 3 2100 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 5 G0
24 Feb 8 G0
25 Feb 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Feb. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 observed at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-24 Feb. G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 25-Feb due to anticipated
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
22-Feb, with mildly degraded conditions observed at the start
and end of the UT day. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
over 23-25 Feb. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Feb 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Feb 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on
22 February and is current for 22-24 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Feb in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra,
Townsville and Cocos Islands. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 23-25 Feb. Minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 28600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list