[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 22 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 23 10:30:52 AEDT 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 199/151


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Feb             24 Feb             25 Feb
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            190/143

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Feb was at the R0 level 
with two high C-class flares observed. There are currently six 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and five unnumbered 
regions. AR3998 (S14W10, beta-delta) and AR4000 (N18W06, beta-gamma-delta) 
showed significant spot development over the UT day and are magnetically 
complex. AR3996 (S17W32, beta) showed development in its trailer 
spots but remains magnetically simple. AR3989 (N19W93, alpha) 
was responsible for the largest C-class flares of the UT day, 
but is soon to rotate off the solar disk. All other numbered 
regions are either stable or in decay. Two unnumbered regions 
with beta magnetic characteristics have recently developed on 
the solar disk at around N18E23 and S04E60. Three other unnumbered 
regions have recently rotated onto the solar disk at around N12E55, 
N20E85 and S11E80, all with beta magnetic classification. Solar 
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 23-25 Feb. S0 
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 22-Feb, with 
a very slight increase in >10MeV proton flux. S0 conditions are 
expected on 23-25 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Feb was steady, mostly ranging 
between 285 km/s and 360 km/s and is currently near 300 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background 
levels over 23-24 Feb. There is a chance of an increase on 25-Feb 
due to high speed wind stream effects from a large coronal hole 
in the southern hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: G0

Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21021012
      Cocos Island         2   21011001
      Darwin               3   11021012
      Townsville           4   21121012
      Learmonth            4   22122002
      Alice Springs        3   20021012
      Gingin               2   21011001
      Canberra             3   20021012
      Kennaook Cape Grim   3   21121002
      Hobart               3   21021012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     4   20032001
      Casey               11   33422122
      Mawson              15   43223115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              3   2100 1002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Feb     5    G0
24 Feb     8    G0
25 Feb    12    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 22-Feb. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in 
the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 observed at Mawson. 
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-24 Feb. G0 conditions, 
with a chance of G1 are expected on 25-Feb due to anticipated 
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on 
22-Feb, with mildly degraded conditions observed at the start 
and end of the UT day. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 
over 23-25 Feb. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Feb   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      124
Feb      118
Mar      115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Feb   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Feb   150    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Feb   150    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 
22 February and is current for 22-24 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Feb in the Australian region were near predicted 
monthly values. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra, 
Townsville and Cocos Islands. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 23-25 Feb. Minor shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 327 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    28600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list