[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Feb 25 10:30:56 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    0146UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M3.3    0702UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.5    2101UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M3.9    2306UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 203/154

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     R1, chance R2      R1, chance R2      R1, chance R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            205/156            200/152

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Feb was at the R1 level 
due to four M-class flares, the largest of which was an M3.9 
flare at 24/2306UT produced by an active region beyond the western 
limb. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible 
on the solar disk. AR3998 (S12W37, beta-gamma) is the largest 
region on the disk and has shown spot growth. The trailer spots 
of AR4000 (N18W30, beta-gamma) and AR4006 (N17E48, beta) have 
decayed. AR4004 (S14E48, beta) has exhibited spot growth over 
the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in 
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 
25-27 Feb, with a chance of R2. S0 solar proton conditions were 
observed on UT day 24-Feb, though the proton flux was elevated. 
S0-S1 solar proton conditions are expected over 25-27 Feb. No 
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A west-directed CME was 
observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 24/0612UT. 
This CME is considered to have originated from beyond the western 
limb and is not geoeffective. A second west-directed CME was 
observed, visible in coronagraph imagery from 24/2136UT. This 
CME is also considered to be farside and does not contain an 
Earth-directed component. The solar wind speed on UT day 24-Feb 
increased, ranging from 315 to 440 km/s and is currently near 
415 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 18 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+15 to -13 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions 
was observed from 24/1608-1826UT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain near background levels over 25-27 Feb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: G0

Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   21222243
      Cocos Island         7   22222231
      Darwin               8   21222233
      Townsville          11   21223243
      Learmonth            9   21222242
      Alice Springs       10   21222243
      Gingin               7   21222232
      Canberra            10   21222243
      Kennaook Cape Grim  10   21222243
      Hobart              10   22222243    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    14   21133352
      Casey               20   45442232
      Mawson              26   53333263

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2111 0013     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb    12    G0, chance of G1
26 Feb     8    G0
27 Feb    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 24-Feb. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period 
of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 25-27 Feb, with a chance of G1 on 25-Feb due to the current 
mildly elevated IMF conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on 
UT day 24-Feb. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 
25-27 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Feb   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      124
Feb      118
Mar      115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb   135    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Feb   135    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Feb   135    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24-Feb in 
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values. MUFs 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced 
over 25-27 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 313 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    49600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au