[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 17 10:30:56 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Feb was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently twelve
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3990 (S08W14,
gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and
has shown mild growth in its intermediate spots, whilst its leader
spots have decayed. AR3991 (S13E07, beta) and AR3998 (S14E72,
beta) have shown spot growth over the UT day. AR3996 (S17E51,
beta) has exhibited spot growth in its intermediate spots over
the UT day. Newly numbered AR3999 (N07E52, beta) recently appeared
on the solar disk and has shown spot growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 17-19 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Feb decreased,
ranging from 520 to 605 km/s and is currently near 520 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 17-19 Feb
due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 22332332
Cocos Island 8 22221332
Darwin 7 22221223
Townsville 10 23332222
Learmonth 11 22232333
Alice Springs 12 22332333
Gingin 13 32232343
Canberra 10 22331332
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 23342332
Hobart 13 23341332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 21 33453432
Casey 26 45543333
Mawson 30 35533445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25 3334 3544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 12 G0, chance of G1
18 Feb 8 G0
19 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 16 February
and is current for 16-17 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 16-Feb. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 17-19 Feb, with a chance of G1 on
17-Feb due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were fair to normal
on UT day 16-Feb. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
17-19 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 16
February and is current for 16-17 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 16-Feb in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values to 20% depressed. Depressions were observed in
southern Australian regions. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 17-19 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 584 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 213000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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