[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 17 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Feb 18 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1513UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Feb was at the R1 level,
due to a single M1.1 flare at 17/1513UT. There are currently
eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3992
(S05W77, beta) produced the one M-class flare of the UT day but
appeared stable and will rotate off the solar disk over 18-Feb.
AR3997 (N02E19, beta), AR3998 (S14E58, beta-gamma) and AR3999
(N07E39, beta) all showed spot development over the UT day. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 18-20 Feb. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on 17-Feb. S0 conditions are expected
on 18-20 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 17-Feb slowly decreased, mostly ranging
between 440 and 580 km/s and is currently near 500 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue decline over 18-120
Feb due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
A coronal hole is visible in the northern hemisphere approaching
a geoeffective position, but it is considered too far north to
significantly impact the solar wind environment at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 22223323
Cocos Island 6 22212311
Darwin 10 31213323
Townsville 11 32223323
Learmonth 11 32224322
Alice Springs 10 22223323
Gingin 11 32224322
Canberra 10 22223323
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 22224323
Hobart 10 22223323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Macquarie Island 22 23345523
Casey 28 45643223
Mawson 25 44443335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 2333 3324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 10 G0
19 Feb 8 G0
20 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 17-Feb. Mostly G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed
briefly at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
18-20 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were fair to poor at
high and mid latitudes in the southern hemisphere for the first
half of the UT day 16-Feb. Conditions recovered to mostly normal
for the second half of the UT day. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected over 18-20 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 120 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 125 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Feb in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values with
depressions of up to 15% observed in the southern Australian
region. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Perth during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 18-20 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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