[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 16 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Feb was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares observed. There are currently
ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3990
(S08W01, gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the
disk and has shown mild growth in its leader spots, whilst its
trailer spots have decayed. AR3994 (S21W16, beta) has shown growth
in its leader spot. AR3991 (S13E20, beta) and AR3997 (N02E17,
beta) have both shown spot growth over the UT day. AR3996 (S17E65,
beta) recently rotated over the eastern limb and has exhibited
spot development. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 16-18 Feb. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. An east-directed CME first observed on 14/2148UT
was modelled and is not considered to be geoeffective. A second
east-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 15/0125UT. Modelling indicates this CME is not Earth-directed.
A southward CME was observed, visible in coronagraph imagery
from 15/1325UT. This CME is considered a farside event and not
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Feb increased,
ranging from 525 to 650 km/s and is currently near 625 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -8
nT. Several short periods of southward IMF conditions were observed
over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 16-18 Feb due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from a southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: G1
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 20 33353433
Cocos Island 13 33332332
Darwin 18 33343433
Townsville 20 33353433
Learmonth 23 43353443
Alice Springs 20 33353433
Gingin 25 43353542
Canberra 18 33352333
Kennaook Cape Grim 23 33362433
Hobart 23 33362433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 48 34375653
Casey 42 56653344
Mawson 46 55554465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 21
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 18 G0-G1
17 Feb 12 G0, chance of G1
18 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Feb due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects. Mostly G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G3 observed
at Macquarie Island. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 16-Feb due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 17-18 Feb,
with a chance of G1 on 17-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were fair to normal
on UT day 15-Feb. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected over
16-17 Feb. Mostly normal conditions are expected on 18-Feb. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-Feb in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 15-25%
depressed. Depressions were observed in southern Australian regions.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
depressed over 16-17 Feb. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on 18-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV:
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background:
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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