[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Sat Feb 15 10:30:51 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0228UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    1007UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.8    2057UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 179/132

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            190/143

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Feb was at the R1 level 
due to three M-class flares, the largest of which was an M1.8 
flare at 14/2057UT produced by AR3990 (S08E14, beta). There are 
currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar 
disk and three unnumbered regions. AR3990 is the largest region 
on the disk and has exhibited spot development over the UT day. 
AR3992 (S05W35, beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots, 
whilst the remainder of the region has decayed. Three unnumbered 
regions are visible near S19W27 (beta), N06W48 (beta) and N13W38 
(alpha). All unnumbered regions have shown mild spot growth. 
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar 
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 15-17 Feb. An 
east-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph 
imagery from 14/2148UT. This CME is likely associated with the 
aforementioned M1.8 flare from AR3990. Modelling of this CME 
will be undertaken once sufficient coronagraph imagery becomes 
available. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The 
solar wind speed on UT day 14-Feb mildly increased, ranging from 
445 to 580 km/s and is currently near 580 km/s. The peak total 
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to remain elevated over 15-17 Feb due to coronal 
hole high speed wind stream effects from a southern hemisphere 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: G0

Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   33224333
      Cocos Island        10   22223332
      Darwin              13   23224333
      Townsville          15   33234333
      Learmonth           18   33225334
      Alice Springs       13   23224333
      Gingin              20   43324344
      Canberra            15   33324333
      Kennaook Cape Grim  19   34325333
      Hobart              19   34325333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    34   35546433
      Casey               37   46644334
      Mawson              52   56544466

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             22   3534 4334     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb    14    G0, chance of G1
16 Feb    12    G0
17 Feb     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 14-Feb, with isolated local periods of G1 observed 
at Learmonth, Hobart and Kennaook Cape Grim. G1-G2 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 15-17 Feb, with a chance of G1 on 
15-Feb due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Fair           Poor-fair      Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were poor to fair on 
UT day 14-Feb. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected on 15-Feb. 
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 16-17 Feb. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Feb    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      124
Feb      118
Mar      115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb    90    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 14 
February and is current for 14-15 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 14-Feb in the Australian region were 15-30% 
depressed. Spread F was observed at Hobart. Sporadic E was observed 
at Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values to 15% depressed on 15-Feb. MUFs are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 16-17 Feb. 
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    95700 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au