[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Feb 14 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1109UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 168/122 168/122
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Feb was at the R1 level
due to a single M1.0 flare at 13/1109UT. There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and
one unnumbered region. AR3992 (S05W23, beta-gamma) is the most
significant region on the solar disk. It was responsible for
the M-class flare during the day and has displayed spot development.
AR3990 (S08E26, beta) and newly numbered AR3994 (S21E10, beta)
also displayed spot development over the UT day. An unnumbered
region has developed on the solar disk at S09W14, with beta magnetic
characteristics. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 14-16 Feb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on 13-Feb. S0 conditions are expected over 14-16 Feb. No geoeffective
CMEs have been observed on 13-Feb. The solar wind speed on UT
day 13-Feb was steady, mostly ranging between 410 to 560 km/s
and is currently near 505 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase on 14-Feb due to high speed wind stream effects from
a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere approaching a geoeffective
location. The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on
15-16 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 22233333
Cocos Island 10 22233322
Darwin 11 22233233
Townsville 12 22233333
Learmonth 13 22233334
Alice Springs 12 22233333
Canberra 13 22324333
Kennaook Cape Grim 14 22334333
Hobart 14 22334333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 25 24356322
Casey 20 34533333
Mawson 55 55445476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3323 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 20 G0-G1
15 Feb 14 G0, chance of G1
16 Feb 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 12 February
and is current for 14 Feb only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 13-Feb. G1-G3 conditions
was observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 14-Feb due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. G0 conditions
are expected on 15-Feb, with a chance of G1. G0 conditions are
expected on 16-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly poor at
the beginning of UT day 13-Feb. Conditions recovered to mostly
normal for most of the day. Worse conditions were observed in
the southern hemisphere. Mostly fair HF conditions are expected
on 14-Feb and normal to fair conditions are expected on 15-Feb
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Mostly normal
conditions are expected on 16-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 21 was issued
on 13 February and is current for 14-15 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Feb in the northern Australian region were
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. MUFs in the southern
Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Spread F was observed at Hobart. Sporadic E was observed at Hobart,
Canberra, Cocos Islands and Norfolk Island. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed on 14-15
Feb. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on
16-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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