[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Feb 13 10:30:55 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Feb was at the R0 level.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. Newly numbered region AR3992 (S02W07, beta) showed
spot development over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 13-15 Feb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 12-Feb. S0 conditions are expected over 13-15
Feb. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed. A pair of solar
filaments lifted off the solar disk from 12/1306UT, visible in
SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery at around S40W55. No coronagraph
imagery is currently available to asses if these lift offs resulted
in a CME. Further analysis will be performed when imagery becomes
available. The solar wind speed on UT day 12-Feb mildly declined,
mostly ranging between 430 to 590 km/s and is currently near
500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to
decline slowly over 13-Feb until an expected increase late on
13-Feb or on 14-Feb due to a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere
currently rotating towards a geoeffective position. Elevated
solar wind speeds are expected on 15-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 22232332
Cocos Island 7 22222231
Darwin 8 22231232
Townsville 8 22231232
Learmonth 10 22232332
Alice Springs 9 22231332
Canberra 11 23332232
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 23332332
Hobart 12 23332332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 16 23253422
Casey 31 36642333
Mawson 51 66443374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 3333 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 14 G0, chance of G1
14 Feb 20 G0-G1
15 Feb 14 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 12 February
and is current for 14 Feb only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 12-Feb. Mostly G2
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region with an isolated
period of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with
a chance of G1 are expected on 13-Feb and G0-G1 conditions are
expected on 14-Feb due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. G0 conditions
are expected on 15-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly poor at
the beginning of UT day 12-Feb. Conditions recovered to mostly
normal by the end of the day. Mostly normal HF conditions are
expected on 13-Feb. Normal to fair conditions are expected over
14-15 Feb due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Feb in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 20%
depressed, with worse conditions in the southern Australian region.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours and
sporadic E was observed at Cocos Islands, Hobart and Learmonth.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 13-Feb.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
depressed on 14-15 Feb due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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