[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Feb 12 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0535UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Feb was at the R1 level
due to an M1.6 flare at 11/0535UT produced by AR3981 (N07W92,
beta). Several C-class flares were also observed over the UT
day, all produced by AR3981. This region has now rotated over
the western limb. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3990 (S09E68, beta) is the largest
region on the disk and is stable. AR3987 (S09E10, beta) has exhibited
mild spot growth over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Feb. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT
day 11-Feb mildly declined, ranging from 500 to 590 km/s and
is currently near 500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. A southern hemisphere coronal hole
is currently crossing the central meridian and may influence
the solar wind speed late on 13-Feb. The solar wind speed is
expected to decline on 12-Feb, then increase over 13-14 Feb due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a southern
hemisphere coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 33323322
Cocos Island 7 22222321
Darwin 11 33223322
Townsville 12 33323322
Learmonth 15 33333432
Alice Springs 12 33323322
Gingin 15 33------
Canberra 12 33323232
Hobart 14 33333332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 25 3444542-
Casey 34 46643333
Mawson 33 55544344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 134 (Severe storm)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 4234 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 8 G0
13 Feb 14 G0, chance of G1
14 Feb 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Feb. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 12-13 Feb, with a chance of G1 on 13-Feb due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from a southern hemisphere
coronal hole. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 14-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to fair
on UT day 11-Feb. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on
12-Feb. Normal to fair conditions are expected over 13-14 Feb
due to a mild increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 95 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Feb in
the southern Australian region were near predicted monthly values.
MUFs were near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed in the
northern Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 12-13 Feb. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% depressed on 14-Feb due to a mild increase
in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list