[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Feb 11 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0046UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Feb was at the R1 level
due to an M1.0 flare at 10/0046UT produced by AR3981 (N07W81,
beta). There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3981 is the largest
region on the disk and is currently rotating over the western
limb. AR3983 (N06W17, beta) has exhibited spot growth over the
UT day. Newly numbered region AR3990 (S08E71, beta) recently
rotated over the eastern limb and is stable. An unnumbered region
recently appeared near S01E18 (beta) and has shown mild spot
growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 11-13 Feb.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 10-Feb was mostly stable, ranging from 535 to 605 km/s
and is currently near 555 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -13 nT. A southern hemisphere coronal hole
is currently crossing the central meridian and may influence
the solar wind speed late on 13-Feb. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain elevated over 11-13 Feb due to the combined
effects of ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
and anticipated glancing CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 14 42333323
Cocos Island 13 42333322
Darwin 13 32333323
Townsville 15 32343333
Learmonth 19 52343333
Alice Springs 13 32333323
Gingin 20 52343423
Canberra 13 32333323
Hobart 16 42433323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 27 53454433
Casey 32 55643333
Mawson 57 65554665
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 69 (Active)
Canberra 86 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18 1122 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
12 Feb 8 G0
13 Feb 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 9 February
and is current for 10-11 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 10-Feb, with local
isolated periods of G1 observed at Learmonth and Gingin. G1-G2
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-13 Feb, with a
chance of G1 on 11-Feb due to the combined effects of coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects and anticipated glancing
CME impacts. A chance of G1 is expected on 13-Feb due to coronal
hole effects from the southern hemisphere coronal hole currently
crossing the central meridian.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to fair
on UT day 10-Feb. Normal to fair conditions are expected over
11-13 Feb due to a mild increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 95 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 9 February
and is current for 9-11 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
in the southern Australian region were 25% depressed during local
day. MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values in the northern
Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed on 11-Feb due to a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 12-13 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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