[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 February 25 issued 2331 UT on 09 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 10 10:31:18 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Feb was at the R0 level
with multiple C-class flares observed. There are currently nine
numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. AR3981 (N07W62,
beta-gamma) remains the largest and most magnetically complex
active region. This region is expected to rotate off the solar
disk on 11-Feb and has shown spot decay over the UT day. AR3983
(N06W03, beta) and AR3988 (S21W33, beta) both showed spot development
on 09-Feb but remain magnetically simple. All other active regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels, with a chance of R2 on 10-Feb and at R0-R1
levels on 11-12 Feb as AR3981 rotates off the solar disk. S0
solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 09-Feb. S0 solar
proton conditions are expected over 10-12 Feb. No geoeffective
CMEs were observed on 09-Feb. A disappearing filament was observed
from 09/1216UT in H-Alpha, SDO and GOES SUVI imagery at around
S25W14. Despite material appearing to lift off the disk no associated
CME is visible in available coronagraph imagery. Two faint CMEs
from 7 and 8-Feb have been analysed and are expected to produce
glancing impacts with Earth at 11/1300UT and 12/1800UT +/- 12
hours respectively. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Feb increased
due to the arrival of a high speed wind stream from an equatorial
coronal hole. The solar wind speed mostly ranged between 320
km/s and 600 km/s and is currently at around 545 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 23 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +16 to -17 nT. Bz has
been mostly negative since 09/1300UT. The solar wind is expected
to remain elevated over 10-12 Feb due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects combined with anticipated glancing
CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: G1
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 20 23233445
Cocos Island 15 22233344
Darwin 17 23233335
Townsville 20 23233445
Learmonth 20 23233445
Alice Springs 17 23233335
Gingin 19 22233445
Canberra 17 13223435
Hobart 16 13333434
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 21 12223644
Casey 37 45644345
Mawson 34 35334546
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 0343 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 25 G1
11 Feb 15 G0, chance G1
12 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 9 February
and is current for 10-11 Feb. G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 09-Feb due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 10-Feb due to ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected
on 11-12 Feb due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects combined with a pair of glancing CME impacts.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal to
fair on UT day 09-Feb, with degradations observed at high latitudes
for most of the day and occasionally at mid latitudes. Degraded
conditions were more common in the southern hemisphere. Mostly
normal to fair conditions are expected over 10-11 Feb due to
ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Mostly normal
conditions are expected on 12-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 110 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 110 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on
8 February and is current for 8-10 Feb. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 20 was issued on 9 February and is current for 9-11 Feb.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the southern Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values to depressed
by up to 25%. Enhancements of up to 25% were observed during
local night in the northern Australian region but MUFs were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Periods of sporadic E were observed
at Brisbane and Norfolk Island. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% depressed over 10-11 Feb, due
to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
on 12-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 31700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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