[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 08 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 9 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 0927UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Feb was at the R1 level
due to an M2.1 flare at 08/0927UT. There are currently ten numbered
active regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR3981 (N07W56, beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest, most magnetically
complex and flare active region on the solar disk. AR3981 was
responsible for the M2.1 flare at 08/0927UT but showed some decay
in trailer spots over the UT day. AR3984 (N14W72, beta) also
contributed to the one M-class flare of the day but remains small
and simple and is in decay. Newly numbered region AR3988 (S21W21,
beta) showed spot development on 08-Feb, however, all other active
regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region has
recently rotated on to the solar disk at around N20E85 with alpha
magnetic characteristics. Solar activity is expected to be at
R1-R2 levels over 09-10 Feb and at the R1 level, with a chance
of R2 on 11-Feb as AR3981 leaves the solar disk. S0 solar proton
conditions were observed on UT day 08-Feb. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 09-11 Feb, with a chance of S1 due to a the
large and complex AR3981 approaching the western limb. Several
faint and narrow CMEs were observed on 08-Feb, but none are considered
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Feb was steady,
mostly ranging between 300 to 370 km/s and is currently near
330 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+12 to -9 nT. A sustained period of significant negative Bz was
observed from 08/0930UT to 08/1315UT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain near background levels on 09-Feb. An increase
is expected late on 10-Feb due to high speed wind stream effects
from a large equatorial coronal hole at the central meridian.
Elevated solar wind conditions are expected on 11-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 11323122
Cocos Island 5 11222121
Darwin 7 12223122
Townsville 9 12324122
Learmonth 7 11323122
Alice Springs 7 11323122
Gingin 7 11323122
Canberra 9 11324122
Hobart 10 12334122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 25 02636311
Casey 15 25333123
Mawson 17 25433321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 8 G0
10 Feb 20 G0-G1
11 Feb 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Feb. Mostly G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed
at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
09-Feb. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 10-11 Feb due to anticipated
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a large equatorial
coronal hole approaching a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 08-Feb, with degradations observed at high latitudes for
most of the day and occasionally at mid latitudes. Degraded conditions
were more common in the northern hemisphere. Mostly normal HF
conditions are expected over 09-10 Feb, with a chance of degradations
at the end of 10-Feb and on 11-Feb due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 149
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Feb 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on
8 February and is current for 8-10 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced on UT day 08-Feb with some stronger enhancements
observed in the northern Australian region during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 08-10 Feb, with a slight chance of depressions
late on 10-Feb. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values on 11-Feb with a chance of mild depressions due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 70600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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