[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Feb 8 10:30:53 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 06/2327UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.6 0630UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.2 0721UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M7.6 0921UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 182/135
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 182/135 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Feb was at the R2 level
due to an M7.6 flare at 07/0921UT. Two R1 level flares were also
observed, an M1.6 flare at 07/0630UT and an M3.2 flare at 07/0721UT.
There are currently nine numbered active regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3981 (N07W43, beta-gamma-delta)
is the most magnetically complex and largest region on the visible
solar disk. This region developed over the UT day, leading to
the emergence of a delta spot around its centre, this region
was also responsible for all M-class flares on 07-Feb. AR3983
(N09E22, beta) and AR3985 (N22W19, beta) both also showed spot
development whilst AR3984 (N14E58, beta) initially showed development
followed by significant decay in its trailer sunspots. All other
active regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region
is visible at around S15W07 with beta magnetic characteristics,
this region appears to be developing. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 08-10 Feb. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 07-Feb. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 08-10 Feb, with a chance of S1 due to a the large
and complex AR3981 approaching the western limb. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Feb
was in decline, ranging between 515 to 350 km/s and is currently
near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
background levels over 08-09 Feb. An increase is expected late
on 10-Feb due to high speed wind stream effects from a large
equatorial coronal hole at the central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11110101
Cocos Island 1 01111000
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 3 12111111
Learmonth 2 10220101
Alice Springs 2 11110101
Gingin 2 11210101
Canberra 1 11110001
Hobart 2 11110101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 12 44421102
Mawson 6 33221200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 2210 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 5 G0
09 Feb 5 G0
10 Feb 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 07-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 08-09 Feb. G0 conditions, with a chance of
G1 are expected on 10-Feb due to high speed wind stream effects
from a large equatorial coronal hole currently at the central
meridian.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on UT day
07-Feb, with degradations observed at high latitudes for most
of the day and occasionally at mid latitudes. Degraded conditions
were more common in the northern hemisphere. Mostly normal HF
conditions are expected over 08-10 Feb, with a chance of degradations
at the end of 10-Feb due to possible geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 160
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 160 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb 160 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Feb 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on
6 February and is current for 6-8 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the southern Australian region were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced on UT day 07-Feb. MUFs in the
northern Australian region were near predicted monthly values.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 08-10 Feb, with a slight chance of depressions
late on 10-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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