[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 February 25 issued 2333 UT on 06 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Feb 7 10:33:37 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.6 1104UT probable lower European
M2.3 2327UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 188/141
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Feb was at the R2 level
due to an M7.6 flare at 06/1104UT produced by AR3981 (N07W27,
beta-gamma). There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3981 is the most magnetically complex
region on the disk and has exhibited spot development over the
UT day, particularly in its intermediate spots. AR3985 (N22W04,
beta) has shown mild growth in its trailer spot. AR3984 (N14W42,
alpha) has shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2
levels over 07-09 Feb. S0 solar proton conditions were observed
on UT day 06-Feb. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over
07-09 Feb, with a chance of S1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A northwest-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery at 06/1200UT. This CME is considered to
be a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 06-Feb increased, ranging from 395 to 490
km/s and is currently near 455 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT. An equatorial coronal hole is currently
crossing the central meridian and may influence the solar wind
speed on 10-Feb. The solar wind speed is expected to decline
toward background levels over 07-09 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22212111
Cocos Island 3 12212100
Darwin 4 22212011
Townsville 7 23212122
Learmonth 5 22212111
Alice Springs 4 12212011
Gingin 4 22212011
Canberra 4 12202121
Hobart 7 13312121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 12214110
Casey 23 46433222
Mawson 14 53323221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1101 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 8 G0
08 Feb 8 G0
09 Feb 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson and an isolated period of G2 observed at
Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 07-09 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on UT day
06-Feb. Normal HF conditions are expected over 07-09 Feb. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 159
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb 155 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on
6 February and is current for 6-8 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced on UT day 06-Feb. Ionospheric scintillation was
observed at Darwin over the interval 06/1452-1550UT. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 07-09 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 52500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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