[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Feb 6 10:30:53 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0315UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7 0750UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 191/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 195/147 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Feb was at the R1 level
due to two M-class flares, the largest of which was an M2.7 flare
at 05/0750UT produced by AR3977 (N18W38, gamma-delta). There
are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3981 (N07W15, beta-gamma-delta)
is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
some decay in its intermediate spots. AR3977 has exhibited growth
in its trailer spots whilst its leader spots have decayed. AR3984
(N14W30, beta) has exhibited spot development over the UT day.
An unnumbered region is visible near S09E80 (alpha) and appears
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 06-08 Feb.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A filament eruption
was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery near S32W51 at 05/0021UT.
An associated CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 05/0212UT. Modelling indicates this CME does not
contain a geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on UT
day 05-Feb was mostly stable, ranging from 365 to 435 km/s and
is currently near 390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 06-08 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 12222312
Cocos Island 3 11111300
Darwin 7 12222312
Townsville 7 22222312
Learmonth 7 22222312
Alice Springs 6 12122312
Gingin 7 21222312
Canberra 5 12122202
Hobart 7 12222312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 22113211
Casey 17 45332312
Mawson 13 23233432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 6 G0
07 Feb 8 G0
08 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 06-08 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on UT day
05-Feb. Normal HF conditions are expected over 06-08 Feb. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 162
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 165 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 165 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 165 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced on
UT day 05-Feb. A shortwave fadeout impacting lower HF frequencies
was observed over the interval 05/0314-0320UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 06-08
Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 57100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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