[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Feb 5 10:30:54 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 03/2328UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.2 0050UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.6 0148UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.2 0518UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.7 1121UT possible lower European
M3.2 1313UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 212/163
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Feb was at the R1 level.
Solar regions AR3981 (N07W02, beta-gamma-delta) and AR3977 (N18W25,
beta-gamma) produced M class flare activity. Solar region AR3981
produced the M4.7 flare at 04/1121UT and two other M class flares.
Solar region AR3977 contributed the M1.2 flare at 04/0518UT and
the M3.2 flare at 04/1313UT. The trailer spot in solar region
AR3981 continues to grow and this region remains magnetically
complex and further flare activity is expected from this region.
Solar region AR3977 which mainly consists of smaller spots has
shown spot redistribution with a mix of minor growth and decay.
Nearby regions AR3976 (N11W25, beta) and AR3978 (N14W13, beta-gamma)
have been stable and have produced C class flare activity. New
solar region AR3984 (N14W10, beta-gamma) has been numbered within
this group of solar regions. Previously flare active solar region
AR3964 appears to have returned to the solar disk at solar latitude
N06 as a small region. There are currently nine numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R2-R3 levels over 05-07 Feb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 04-Feb. S0, chance S1 solar radiation storm
conditions are expected over 05-07 Feb. No significantly Earth
directed CMEs have been observed. Today's flare activity did
not appear to have any significant associated CMEs with little
or no on disk plasma motion observed. A directly northward non
Earth directed, slow CME was observed from 03/2312UT but was
not associated with any on disk activity. The solar wind speed
on UT day 04-Feb continued to decline, ranging from 390 to 455
km/s and is currently near 390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to slowly decrease toward background levels. Another
isolated equatorial coronal hole is currently located in the
eastern solar hemisphere with centre solar longitude location
at E35.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22210112
Cocos Island 2 21110010
Darwin 3 2--10112
Townsville 4 22210112
Learmonth 4 22210112
Alice Springs 4 22210112
Gingin 6 32210122
Canberra 4 22210111
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 4 22210111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 12210001
Casey 23 55532222
Mawson 8 23322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 8 G0
06 Feb 5 G0
07 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 observed
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 05-07 Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on UT day
04-Feb. Normal HF conditions are expected over 05-07 Feb. Frequent
shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 125 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 125 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on
3 February and is current for 3-5 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
to 25% enhanced on UT day 04-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts impacting
lower HF frequencies were observed 04/0142-0211UT and 04/0514-0523UT.
Equatorial ionospheric scintillation was observed at Darwin during
the interval 04/1547-1606UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 05-07 Feb. Frequent shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 62200 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list