[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 February 25 issued 2331 UT on 03 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Feb 4 10:31:34 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0347UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M8.8 0358UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0432UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.1 0547UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.5 0744UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 0913UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M6.1 1318UT probable lower European
M4.3 1836UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.4 2112UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 220/170
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Feb was at the R2 level
due to M8.8 and M6.1 flares from solar region AR3981 (N05E10,
beta-gamma-delta). This region also produced the other M class
flares. The umbra in the trailer spot of this region has rapidly
grown in area and also changed shape, now appearing as an extended
long and thin area. Further flares are expected from this region.
Nearby solar regions AR3978 (N11E02, beta-gamma) and AR3977 (N18W11,
beta-gamma) have shown some development and also nearby AR3976
(N12W08, beta) and AR3982 (N19E04, beta) have been stable. These
other regions have been mostly flare quiet, with AR3977 producing
isolated C class flare activity. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. A solar filament located
in the far southwest quadrant at S45W80 erupted from 03/1031UT.
Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 04-06 Feb.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 03-Feb.
S0, chance S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
04-06 Feb, due to the solar disk location and current flare activity
of solar region AR3981. No significantly Earth directed CMEs
have been observed. Though numerous flares have been observed
none appear to be associated with significant CMEs. A partial
halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 02/2136UT which could
not be correlated to on disk activity and is considered a far
side event. A narrow southeast CME was observed from 03/0125UT
which could not be associated with on disk activity. A narrow
southwest CME was visible from 03/1212UT and has been associated
with the solar filament eruption in the far southwest quadrant.
This minor CME is not considered Earth directed as it is very
narrow and is directed steeply southward out of the ecliptic
plane. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Feb continued to decrease,
ranging from 440 to 520 km/s and is currently near 445 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +11 to -4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to further decrease toward
background levels over 04-06 Feb as coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects wane. Another isolated equatorial coronal hole
is currently located well to the east at solar longitude E50.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 21110002
Cocos Island 2 21100001
Darwin 2 21110002
Townsville 3 22110012
Learmonth 3 22210001
Alice Springs 2 12110002
Gingin 2 21110002
Canberra 2 11110002
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 21110002
Hobart 2 21110002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 21000001
Casey 17 44522123
Mawson 6 22320112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21 3443 4532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 12 G0
05 Feb 8 G0
06 Feb 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 04-06 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were fair to normal
on UT day 03-Feb, with degradations/depressions at middle to
high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
04-06 Feb. Frequent shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 125 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 125 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on
3 February and is current for 3-5 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were 20-25% depressed on UT day
03-Feb. Mild spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. Shortwave fadeouts impacting lower HF frequencies were
observed 02/2314-2356UT, 03/0343-0421UT, 03/0429-0436UT and 03/0542-0557UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 04-06
Feb. Frequent shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 593 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 88000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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