[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 February 25 issued 2333 UT on 02 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 3 10:33:02 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.0 1012UT possible lower European
M1.4 1250UT possible lower European
M5.1 1404UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1513UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.7 1533UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.1 2324UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 216/166
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Feb was at the R2 level
due to an M5.1 flare at 02/1404UT produced by AR3977 (N18E02,
beta-gamma). Five flares at the R1 level were also observed over
the UT day, four of which were produced by AR3981 (N05E26, beta-gamma).
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3976 (N12E04, beta) is
the largest region on the disk and has shown some redistribution
of its spots. AR3981 has exhibited rapid spot development over
the UT day. AR3977 has shown spot growth, particularly in its
leader spots. AR3979 (S16W18, beta) has shown mild spot growth.
An unnumbered region recently appeared near N26E20 (beta) has
shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 03-05 Feb. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. A partial halo CME was observed, visible in LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery from 02/0548UT. This CME is considered
to be a farside event and not geoeffective. A narrow northeast-directed
CME was observed, visible in coronagraph imagery from 02/1436UT.
This CME is considered to be associated with the M5.1 flare from
AR3977. Modelling indicates this CME is not Earth-directed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 02-Feb decreased, ranging from 515
to 685 km/s and is currently near 515 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease toward background levels over 03-05 Feb as coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 14 22334422
Cocos Island 13 31234421
Darwin 11 22234322
Townsville 12 22333422
Learmonth 20 32345423
Alice Springs 14 22334422
Gingin 19 32244523
Canberra 12 22333422
Kennaook Cape Grim 17 22444422
Hobart 17 22444422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 28 33464522
Casey 20 35434322
Mawson 26 45435432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 28 4232 6553
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 16 G0, chance of G1
04 Feb 12 G0
05 Feb 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 1 February
and is current for 1-3 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 02-Feb, with isolated periods
of G1 observed at Learmonth and Gingin. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G2 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 03-05 Feb, with a chance of G1 on 03-Feb as
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to fair
on UT day 02-Feb. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be fair to normal on 03-Feb for middle to high latitudes due
to a mild increase in geomagnetic activity associated with coronal
hole wind streams. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
04-05 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 85 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on
31 January and is current for 1-3 Feb. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 15 was issued on 2 February and is current for 2-3 Feb.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were
near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed on UT day 02-Feb.
Mild spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be 15-20% depressed on 03-Feb, then recover
to near predicted monthly values over 04-05 Feb. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 588 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 243000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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