[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 2 10:30:52 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 1319UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 188/141
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Feb was at the R1 level
due to an M2.4 flare at 01/1319UT produced by AR3977 (N18E17,
beta-gamma). Several C-class flares were also observed over the
UT day. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR3976 (N12E20, beta) is the largest region
on the disk and has shown mild decay in its intermediate spots.
AR3978 (N11E30, beta-gamma) has exhibited spot development over
the UT day, particularly in its trailer spots. AR3981 (N05E38,
beta-gamma) has shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1-R2 levels over 02-04 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Feb increased,
ranging from 400 to 710 km/s and is currently near 660 km/s.
The increase in wind speed is due to Earth's entry into a coronal
hole high speed wind stream. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 19 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +14 to -17 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 02-04 Feb due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 20 43323444
Cocos Island 12 42223332
Darwin 21 43333444
Townsville 22 42333454
Learmonth 22 53333443
Alice Springs 20 42333444
Gingin 20 52323443
Canberra 17 33322444
Kennaook Cape Grim 20 43323444
Hobart 20 43323444
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 26 43434544
Casey 40 56454354
Mawson 51 54545475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1012 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 20 G0-G1
03 Feb 16 G0, chance of G1
04 Feb 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 1 February
and is current for 1-3 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 01-Feb, with isolated periods
of G1 observed at Learmonth, Townsville and Gingin. Mostly G1-G2
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G3 observed at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 02-Feb due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
03-04 Feb, with a chance of G1 on 03-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to fair
on UT day 01-Feb. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be normal to fair over 01-02 Feb for middle to high latitudes
due to a mild increase in geomagnetic activity associated with
coronal hole wind streams. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 116
Mar 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 105 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on
31 January and is current for 1-3 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
to 20% depressed in southern Australian regions on UT day 01-Feb.
Mild spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 10-15%
depressed on 02-Feb due to a mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 03-04
Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 62900 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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