[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 January 25 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Feb 1 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0610UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M6.7 1406UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.8 2023UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 207/158
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 215/165 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Jan was at the R2 level
due to an M6.7 flare at 31/1406UT produced by AR3976 (N13E32,
beta). Two flares at the R1 level and numerous C-class flares
were also observed over the UT day. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3976 is the largest region on the disk and has exhibited
spot development, particularly in its trailer spots. AR3977 (N22E31,
beta) has also shown development in its trailer spots. AR3978
(N11E42, beta) has shown spot growth over the UT day. AR3980
(S10E51, beta) has shown mild growth in its leader spot. An unnumbered
region recently appeared near S05E40 (beta) and has shown mild
growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 01-03 Feb.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A west-directed CME
was observed, visible in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery at 31/1438UT.
This CME is associated with the aforementioned M6.7 flare from
AR3976. Modelling indicates this low velocity CME does not contain
a geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on UT day 31-Jan
increased, ranging from 285 to 465 km/s and is currently near
465 km/s. The late increase in wind speed likely indicates Earth's
entry into a coronal hole high speed wind stream. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 18 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +16 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to increase over 01-03 Feb due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22222223
Cocos Island 6 21212222
Darwin 9 22113233
Townsville 10 22223233
Learmonth 12 32223333
Alice Springs 7 21113223
Gingin 8 31222223
Canberra 6 22212222
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 22222222
Hobart 7 22222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 11133111
Casey 26 45633223
Mawson 11 42323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 20 G0-G1
02 Feb 20 G0-G1
03 Feb 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 29 January
and is current for 31 Jan to 1 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 31-Jan. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 and an isolated period of G2 observed
at Casey. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 01-02
Feb due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 03-Feb, with a chance of G1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal on UT day
31-Jan. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal
to be fair over 01-03 Feb for middle to high latitudes due to
an expected mild increase in geomagnetic activity associated
with coronal hole wind streams. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 158
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 132
Jan 119
Feb 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 120 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
02 Feb 105 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on
31 January and is current for 1-3 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted values to
35% enhanced on UT day 31-Jan. Mild spread-F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. Southern Australian region MUFs
were 20% enhanced after local dawn. Southern Australian MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
over 01-02 Feb due to a mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 03-Feb.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 298 km/sec Density: 20.4 p/cc Temp: 30100 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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