[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 August 25 issued 2338 UT on 28 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Aug 29 09:38:14 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1416UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1711UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 1903UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.5 2040UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: Unknown
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 228/178 228/178
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Aug was at the R1 level,
due to 4 low level M-class flares. There are currently twelve
numbered and two unnumbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR4203 (N14W41,beta) has been the most active region over
the UT day and was responsible for a number of M class flares
with the largest being M1.5 observed at 28/2040UT. AR4197 (S17E20,beta-gamma)
is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and is showing
growth in its intermediates. AR4200 (S08W25,beta), AR4201 (S18E29,beta),
both showed spot development over 28-Aug. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Two unnumbered regions have rotated
onto the solar disk at around (N17E78) and another at around
(N09E80), both with unclear magnetic complexity. Solar activity
is expected at the R1 level with a chance of R2 on 29-31 Aug.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 28-Aug,
with the proton flux as measured at GOES showing a steady decline
over the UT day. S0-S1 conditions are expected on 29-Aug. S0
with a chance of S1 conditions are expected over 30-31 Aug. No
geoeffective CMEs were observed on 28-Aug. The solar wind speed
on UT day 28-Aug was steady at around background levels, ranging
from 364 to 435 km/s and is currently near 467 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -6 to +7
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels over 29-31 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21220012
Cocos Island 3 22210011
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 5 21320121
Alice Springs 3 12220011
Gingin 4 21210122
Canberra 3 11210012
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11220012
Hobart 3 11210012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 10211001
Casey 14 44332123
Mawson 14 33321144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1113 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 6 Quiet
30 Aug 5 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug 4 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 28-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 29-31 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0100UT 27/08, Ended at 1305UT 27/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Poor
30 Aug Normal Normal Poor
31 Aug Normal Normal Poor
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 28-Aug were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 29-31 Aug, with poor conditions possible
at high latitudes due to the chance of further S1 events. Brief
shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on
27 August and is current for 27-29 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 28-Aug were near predicted
monthly values . MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 29-31 Aug. Brief shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 53000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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