[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 22 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Aug 23 09:30:46 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 1851UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Aug was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.7 flare at 22/1900UT from over the eastern limb.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk which are all magnetically simple and have no
flaring history. AR4191 (N13E56, beta) is the largest region
on the solar disk and appeared stable over the UT day. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 23-25 Aug, with a chance
of R1. Solar proton conditions were enhanced but well below the
S1 level on UT day 22-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions are expected
over 23-25 Aug. No significantly Earth-directed CMEs were observed
on 22-Aug. A broad, east directed partial halo CME was observed
from 22/0624UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This CME is associated
with faint movement behind the southeast limb as observed in
SDO imagery from 22/0540UT. Modelling indicates this CME presents
the chance of a glancing impact with Earth late on 25-Aug. A
broad, fast, east directed partial halo CME is visible from 22/1938UT
in STEREO-A imagery only due to a current SOHO data gap. This
CME is associated with an eruption off the eastern limb, visible
from 22/1811UT in SDO imagery at around S17 and concurrent with
the M1.7 flare at 22/1900UT. This CME appears to mostly be directed
well to the east and thus is not expected to be significantly
geoeffective. Further analysis will be performed when more coronagraph
imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Aug
was largely steady, ranging from 460 to 570 km/s and is currently
near 500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -5 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline
gradually towards background levels as coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects wane. An increase in wind speed is possible
on 25-Aug due to a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere rotating
towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 32101211
Cocos Island 4 22111210
Darwin 5 22101222
Townsville 5 32101122
Learmonth 6 32112221
Alice Springs 4 32101111
Gingin 5 32101220
Canberra 3 22101111
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 32101211
Hobart 3 22101111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 22102111
Casey 11 44301222
Mawson 24 64221253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3211 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 6 G0
24 Aug 6 G0
25 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
and G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 23-25 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 22-Aug were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 23-25 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 98 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 98 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 98 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Aug were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Hobart and Brisbane during local night hours.
Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane and Learmonth. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 23-25 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 76200 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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