[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 21 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Aug 22 09:30:45 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Aug was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4191 (N13E65, 
beta) is the largest region on the disk and appears stable. AR4189 
(N07E20, beta) has shown mild spot growth over the UT day. All 
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity 
is expected to be at the R0 level over 22-24 Aug, with a chance 
of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 21-Aug. 
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 22-24 Aug. No Earth-directed 
CMEs have been observed. A high velocity halo CME was observed, 
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 21/0824UT. This 
CME has no obvious on-disk source and is considered a farside 
event. The solar wind speed on UT day 21-Aug declined, ranging 
from 430 to 570 km/s and is currently near 455 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -5 to +7 
nT. A coronal hole is currently visible in the eastern solar 
hemisphere, now approaching the central meridian. The solar wind 
speed is expected to decline toward background levels over 22-24 
Aug due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: G0

Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22110231
      Cocos Island         5   12110231
      Darwin               6   22210232
      Townsville           6   22110232
      Learmonth            6   22120231
      Alice Springs        5   22110231
      Gingin               5   22110231
      Canberra             5   22110231
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   22110231
      Hobart               5   22110231    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     3   22000121
      Casey                9   33221232
      Mawson              21   35111236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12   3332 3223
           Planetary             13   4333 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug     8    G0
23 Aug     6    G0
24 Aug     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 21-Aug. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period 
of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 22-24 Aug.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 21-Aug were 
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to 
be mostly normal over 22-24 Aug.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Aug    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      88
Aug      96
Sep      93

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug    90    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    90    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 21-Aug were near predicted monthly values. Spread 
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values over 22-24 Aug.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 588 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   163000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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