[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Aug 17 09:30:49 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Aug was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4172 (N11W90,
beta) has exhibited spot growth over the UT day and is currently
rotating over the western limb. AR4186 (N07W58, beta) has decayed
over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 17-19 Aug. S0 solar proton conditions were observed
on UT day 16-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over
17-19 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A small
filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery from
16/1051UT centred near N18E50. A subsequent associated eastward
CME was observed, visible in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from
16/1123UT. Modelling indicates this CME does not contain a geoeffective
component. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Aug decreased, ranging
from 340 to 390 km/s and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -4 to +3
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase late on 17-Aug
and remain elevated over 18-19 Aug due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12110201
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 4 12120211
Townsville 4 11121212
Learmonth 3 12120200
Alice Springs 2 12010200
Gingin 2 11110200
Canberra 2 11020201
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 12110201
Hobart 2 02110201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 01020200
Casey 7 23321201
Mawson 5 12221212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 3222 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 8 G0
18 Aug 18 G0-G1
19 Aug 16 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 16-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 17-Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 18-19 Aug due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Aug were
mostly normal, with periods of fair conditions at high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 17-19 Aug, with fair conditions at high latitudes over 18-19
Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Aug were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Hobart and Perth during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 17-19
Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 75500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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