[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 15 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Aug 16 09:30:49 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Aug was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently ten
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4172 (N11W65,
beta) is the largest region on the disk and has decayed over
the UT day. This region is now approaching the western limb.
AR4182 (N10E48, beta) has recently developed a small trailer
spot. Newly numbered AR4186 (N05W45, beta) recently appeared
on the solar disk and has shown rapid growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 16-18 Aug, with a chance of R1. S0
solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 15-Aug. S0 solar
proton conditions are expected over 16-18 Aug. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Aug
decreased, ranging from 365 to 480 km/s and is currently near
370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -5 to +4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
background levels on 16-Aug, then increase late on 17-Aug due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22110121
Cocos Island 2 11110020
Darwin 6 32211122
Townsville 4 22111022
Learmonth 4 22210121
Alice Springs 4 22210021
Gingin 5 22210130
Canberra 3 22110021
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22120121
Hobart 4 22120121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 22220110
Casey 11 34321131
Mawson 20 34322354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 10 3233 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 6 G0
17 Aug 8 G0
18 Aug 16 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 16-17 Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
18-Aug due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from
an equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 15-Aug were
mostly normal with periods of fair conditions at high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 16-18 Aug, with fair conditions at high latitudes on 18-Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 16-18 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 97800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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