[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 14 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Aug 15 09:30:51 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Aug was at the R0 level.
There are currently thirteen numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. No regions showed significant spot development
over the UT day. AR4172 (N11W54, beta) and the, soon to rotate
off, AR4178 (N09W83, beta) are the largest regions on the solar
disk, but are in decay and have no history of R1 level flaring
or higher. AR4180 (S02E30, beta) showed movement in its trailer
spots but is magnetically simple and has no history of R1 level
flaring or higher. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 15-17 Aug, with a chance of R1. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 14-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 15-17 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
on 14-Aug. An eruption is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery
from 14/1946UT at around N10 on the western limb. This is associated
with a long duration C2.0 flare from AR4178. No associated CME
is visible in currently available coronagraph imagery. Further
analysis will be performed when more imagery becomes available.
However, a CME from this location on the solar disk is highly
unlikely to possess a significant geoeffective component. The
solar wind speed on UT day 14-Aug declined slightly, mostly ranging
between 420 km/s to 530 km/s and is currently near 460 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -5
nT to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to
decline gradually over 15-17 Aug as ongoing coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects wane. There is a chance of an increase
late on 17-Aug due to further high speed wind stream effects
from an equatorial coronal hole currently rotating towards a
geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: R0
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Cocos Island 3 22111100
Darwin 5 22211212
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 6 22222211
Alice Springs 5 22221111
Gingin 7 32222221
Canberra 6 22321211
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 22332111
Hobart 7 22332111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 13 22444111
Casey 11 43322122
Mawson 33 56542334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 15 3333 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 10 G0
16 Aug 9 G0
17 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17
Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Aug were
mostly normal with periods of fair conditions at low and mid
latitudes and periods of poor conditions at high latitudes. The
worst conditions were observed in the northern hemisphere. HF
radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 15-17 Aug, with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 95 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Aug were near predicted monthly values with
depressions of up to 15% observed during local night in the northern
Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart and sporadic
E was observed at Brisbane mostly during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 15-17 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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