[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 13 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Aug 14 09:30:51 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Aug was at the R0 level.
There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR4172 (N11W41, beta) and
AR4178 (N09W72, beta) are the largest and most magnetically complex
regions on the solar disk, however both are in decay and have
no flaring history. AR4180 (S02E43, beta) was the only region
to display growth on 13-Aug, but remains magnetically simple.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 14-16 Aug. S0
solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 13-Aug. S0 solar
proton conditions are expected over 14-16 Aug. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed on 13-Aug. An eruption was observed in SDO
and GOES SUVI imagery from 13/1925UT at around S07. This was
associated with a C4.4 flare at the same time. No associated
CME is visible in currently available coronagraph imagery. Further
analysis will be performed when more imagery becomes available.
However, a CME from this location on the solar disk is highly
unlikely to possess a significant geoeffective component. The
solar wind speed on UT day 13-Aug decreased, mostly ranging between
450 km/s to 690 km/s and is currently near 465 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -5 nT to
+5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline
gradually as ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 22233233
Cocos Island 9 22222323
Darwin 12 23223333
Townsville 12 23233233
Learmonth 13 22333333
Alice Springs 11 12233333
Gingin 12 22234233
Canberra 11 22233233
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 22343233
Hobart 13 22343233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 22 23445433
Casey 18 43323253
Mawson 48 45434467
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 4323 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 12 Quiet
15 Aug 10 Quiet
16 Aug 9 Quiet
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Aug. Mostly G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G2 and G3 conditions
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
14-16 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Aug were
mostly normal with periods of fair conditions at high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
with fair to normal conditions for high latitudes over 14-16
Aug. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
15% depressed during local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 14-16 Aug. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 582 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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