[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 12 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Aug 13 09:30:48 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0059UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.8 0123UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Aug was at the R1 level
due to two M-class flares with the largest being a M1.8 at 12/0123UT
from beyond the western limb. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR4172 (N11W28, beta-gamma) is currently the most magnetically
complex solar region and has shown development in its intermediate
spots. Solar regions AR4171 (N20W12, beta), AR4175 (N11E08, beta)
and AR4177 (N05E11, alpha) developed over the UT day. Newly numbered
region AR4180 (S02E56, beta) has recently rotated onto the solar
disk and showed mild growth. One unnumbered region near S15W10
(beta) also exhibited growth over the UT day. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 13-15 Aug. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 12-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 13-15 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
over 12-Aug. The solar wind speed on UT day 12-Aug increased,
mostly ranging between 490 km/s to 610 km/s and is currently
near 590 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -7 nT to +8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated over 13-15 Aug due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects and may start to gradually decline from late on 15-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 33222222
Cocos Island 6 ---32111
Darwin 10 33222223
Townsville 9 33222123
Learmonth 10 33322222
Alice Springs 7 ---32122
Gingin 8 ---32222
Canberra 5 ---22112
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 33222223
Hobart 9 33222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 9 ---32321
Casey 8 ---23222
Mawson 37 ---34356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 17 4233 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 15 G0
14 Aug 12 G0
15 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1-G2 conditions
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
13-15 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 12-Aug were
mostly normal with periods of fair conditions at high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
with fair to normal conditions for high latitudes over 13-15
Aug. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart, Learmonth, Canberra
and Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 13-15 Aug. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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