[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Aug 12 09:30:50 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 10/2305UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 0352UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 1435UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 1536UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Aug was at the R1 level
due to four M-class flares with the largest being a M1.6 at 11/1536UT.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR4168 (N06W93, beta-gamma)
has recently produced R1 level flares and rotated off the visible
solar disk. AR4172 (N11W15, beta-gamma) is currently the most
magnetically complex solar region and has recently grown. Solar
regions AR4178 (N03W43, beta), AR4174 (S07W71) and AR4179 (S11E57)
all developed over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region has recently
rotated onto the solar disk near S05E80 (alpha). Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Aug. S0 solar proton
conditions were observed on UT day 11-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 12-14 Aug. Several CMEs were observed, none
of which are considered geoeffective. A filament eruption was
observed in SDO304 at 11/1747UT centred near S55W20. Further
analysis of this eruption will be conducted once coronagraph
imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Aug
decreased slightly, mostly ranging between 550 km/s to 490 km/s
and is currently near 530 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -6 nT to +6 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated with gradual decline over 12-14
Aug due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 32223322
Cocos Island 7 222222--
Darwin 11 32323322
Townsville 11 32224322
Learmonth 10 32223322
Alice Springs 10 322133--
Gingin 16 323244--
Canberra 11 222143--
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 22324422
Hobart 11 22324322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Macquarie Island 41 325565--
Casey 21 443334--
Mawson 26 544334--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22 4244 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 16 G0
13 Aug 12 G0
14 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Aug. Mostly G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G2 conditions
observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 12-14 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 11-Aug were
normal to fair. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal with fair to normal for high latitudes over
12-14 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on
10 August and is current for 11-12 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 11-Aug were near predicted
monthly values to 15-20% depressed. Spread F was observed at
Hobart, Canberra and Perth during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 12-14 Aug.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 552 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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