[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 August 25 issued 2331 UT on 10 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Aug 11 09:31:08 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0312UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.2 1507UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.7 2305UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Aug was at the R1 level
due to an M1.6 at 10/0348UT, an M2.2 flare at 10/1507UT and an
M1.7 flare at 10/2305UT. There are currently eleven numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR4168 (N06W77, beta-gamma) has decreased in magnetic
complexity and size but remains the only region producing R1
level flares on the solar disk, being responsible for all three
M-class flares of the UT day. This region is expected to rotate
off the solar disk early on 12-Aug. AR4172 (N11W01, beta-gamma)
and AR4178 (N03W29, beta-gamma) are both developing in size and
magnetic complexity but have little history of flare production.
AR4174 (S07W56, beta) and AR4175 (N11E33. alpha) have also shown
spot development over the UT day but remain small and magnetically
simple. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
An unnumbered region has recently rotated onto the solar disk
at around S13E69 with alpha magnetic complexity. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 11-12 Aug, with a chance
of R2. R0-R1 level activity is expected on 13-Aug due to AR4168
leaving the solar disk. S0 solar proton conditions were observed
on UT day 10-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over
11-13 Aug. A west directed CME is visible from 10/1524UT in SOHO
and STEREO-A imagery. This CME is likely associated with the
M2.2 flare at 10/1507UT from AR4168 and associated coronal movement
is visible off the western limb in GOES SUVI imagery from 10/1533UT
at around S10. Modelling suggests this CME will pass ahead of
Earth. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Aug decreased slightly,
mostly ranging between 510 km/s to 630 km/s and is currently
near 530 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -7 nT to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated over 11-13 Aug due to ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects, with a decline possible later in the period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 15 32353222
Cocos Island 10 22333222
Darwin 18 23453233
Townsville 16 32353223
Learmonth 18 32354233
Alice Springs 14 22353222
Gingin 20 33354333
Canberra 14 22353222
Kennaook Cape Grim 20 32463222
Hobart 21 33463222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 50 22585433
Casey 20 35443223
Mawson 78 64554668
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Hobart 82 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 47 5555 5643
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 16 G0, chance of G1
12 Aug 14 G0, chance of G1
13 Aug 12 G0
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Aug, with a period of G2 conditions observed
at Kennaook Cape Grim and Hobart. G4 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with G1 conditions observed at Casey.
G0 conditions were observed at the planetary level. G0 geomagnetic
conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected over 11-12 Aug due
to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. G0 conditions
are expected on 13-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-Aug were
mostly fair to poor for the first half of the day, with a recovery
towards mostly normal in the second half of the day at low and
mid latitudes. Stronger depressions were observed in the northern
hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
mostly normal to fair on 11-Aug due to recent geomagnetic activity.
Conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 12-13 Aug. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values.
The exception was Hobart, where depressions of up to 30% were
observed during local night. Spread F was also observed at Hobart
and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values on 11-13 Aug, with a slight chance
of further depressions in the southern Australian region on 11-Aug.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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