[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 August 25 issued 0044 UT on 10 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Aug 10 10:44:02 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1621UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Aug was at the R1 level
due to an M1.6 flare at 09/1621UT and an M1.7 flare at 09/1640UT.
There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR4168 (N06W63, beta-gamma) was the cause of the
two small M-class flares of the UT day. This region remains relatively
magnetically complex, but has shown decay over the last 24 hours.
AR4172 (N11E14, beta-gamma) and, newly numbered, AR4178 (N03W15,
beta-gamma) are also magnetically complex and have shown recent
spot development. AR4173 (S18W63, beta) showed spot development
but is still magnetically simple. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R1 level over 10-12 Aug, with a chance of R2. S0 solar proton
conditions were observed on UT day 09-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 10-12 Aug. Multiple southwest directed CMEs
were observed on 09-Aug, but none are considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Aug increased, ranging from
300 km/s to 620 km/s and is currently near 600 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -15 nT to
+12 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
10-12 Aug due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: G1
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 22 33454432
Cocos Island 13 32333332
Darwin 20 33444432
Townsville 21 33453432
Learmonth 22 32354532
Alice Springs 21 33453432
Gingin 25 33454532
Canberra 21 33453432
Kennaook Cape Grim 26 33464432
Hobart 26 33464432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 64 34767633
Casey 15 43323333
Mawson 61 75553474
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 38
Planetary 55
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 50 0113 5454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 20 G0-G1
11 Aug 16 G0, chance of G1
12 Aug 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Aug, with a period of G2 conditions observed
at Kennaook Cape Grim and Hobart. G0-G3 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with G3 conditions observed at Macquarie
Island and G1 conditions observed at Mawson. G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at the planetary level near the end of the UT day.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10-Aug. G0 geomagnetic
conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected over 11-12 Aug.
Anticipated geomagnetic activity is due to ongoing CME impact
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 09-Aug were
mostly normal to fair, with stronger depressions observed in
the northern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are
expected to be mostly fair on 10-Aug due to recent geomagnetic
activity. Conditions are expected to recover over 11-12 Aug,
with the possibility for further depressions, especially at high
latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
11 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on
8 August and is current for 8-10 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 08-Aug were near predicted
monthly values, with enhanced conditions observed in the southern
Australian region. The exception was Hobart, where depressions
of up to 30% were observed during local night, significant spread
F was also observed at Hobart. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane,
Townsville, Darwin and Cocos Islands during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to depressed
by up to 25% in the southern Australian region on 10-Aug due
to recent and expected geomagnetic activity. Conditions are expected
to recover over 11-12 Aug, with a slight chance of further depressions.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 82600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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