[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 07 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Aug 8 09:30:50 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 0232UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.9 1131UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Aug was at the R1 level
due to two low level M-class flares, the largest of which was
an M3.9 flare at 07/1131UT produced by AR4168 (N06W38, gamma).
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR4168 is the most
magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown decay in
its intermediate spots, whilst its leader spot has grown. AR4172
(N11E41, beta) has exhibited spot growth in its leader spots
over the UT day. AR4173 (S18W37, alpha) and AR4174 (S07W16, beta)
have shown mild growth over the 24-hour period. Two unnumbered
regions recently rotated over the eastern limb near N16E77 (alpha)
and N05E80 (alpha). Both unnumbered regions appear stable. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 08-10 Aug, with
a chance of R2. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT
day 07-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 08-10
Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A west-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
07/1200UT. This CME is likely associated with the aforementioned
M3.9 flare. Modelling indicates this CME does not contain a geoeffective
component. The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Aug decreased, ranging
from 335 to 385 km/s and is currently near 335 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -2 to +4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 08-10 Aug
due to the combined effects of a southern hemisphere coronal
hole and a possible glancing CME impact on 08-Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 21100002
Townsville 2 11100012
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 1 21000001
Canberra 1 11000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 21000001
Hobart 1 21000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 10010000
Casey 4 23211001
Mawson 10 22221025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 2211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 20 G0-G1
09 Aug 20 G0-G1
10 Aug 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 08-09 Aug due to the combined effects of a southern hemisphere
coronal hole and a possible glancing CME arrival on 08-Aug. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10-Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 07-Aug were
mostly normal, with periods of fair conditions at high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 08-10 Aug, with fair conditions at high latitudes and normal
to fair conditions at mid latitudes over 08-09 Aug. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Aug were near predicted monthly values, with
20% depressions observed in the northern Australian region during
local night hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Perth
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 08-10 Aug, with a slight chance of mild depressions
over 08-09 Aug due to expected geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 56500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list