[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 08 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Aug 9 09:30:52 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.8 0353UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1910UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Aug was at the R1 level
due to an M2.8 flare at 08/0353UT and an M1.0 flare at 08/1910UT.
There are currently eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR4168 (N06W51, beta-gamma)
is the largest, most magnetically complex and most active region
currently on the solar disk. It was responsible for both M-class
flares on 08-Aug and may still possess a delta spot but appeared
to simplify slightly over the UT day. AR4172 (N11E27, beta) and
AR4176 (N26,E46, beta) both showed spot development over the
UT day, but are small, magnetically simple and have no history
of flaring. An unnumbered region has recently developed on the
solar disk at around N06W04 with beta magnetic complexity. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decline. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 09-11 Aug, with
a chance of R2. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT
day 08-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 09-11
Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A faint, west
directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 08/0712UT,
this CME has no clear on disk source and is considered not geoeffective.
A series of faint, east directed CMEs are visible in SOHO and
STEREO-A imagery from 08/0948UT, 08/1112UT, 08/1412UT and 08/1524UT.
These events may be associated with coronal movement behind the
eastern limb, visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 08/0928UT.
These CMEs are not considered geoeffective. A faint, west directed
CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 08/1924UT and
is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day
08-Aug increased, ranging from 320 to 565 km/s and is currently
near 550 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 18 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -15 to +13 nT. This increase in solar wind conditions is
likely due to a combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects and an anticipated glancing CME impact. These factors
are expected to persist over 09-11 Aug, with possible further
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 12123443
Cocos Island 11 11223343
Darwin 15 22224443
Townsville 13 12124343
Learmonth 20 12224553
Alice Springs 13 12124442
Gingin 18 02223553
Canberra 10 02123342
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 11133443
Hobart 12 11133343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 15 00044443
Casey 14 13223443
Mawson 25 12224465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 20 1111 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 20 G0-G1
10 Aug 14 G0, chance of G1
11 Aug 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 7 August
and is current for 8-9 Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 08-Aug, with
period of G1 conditions observed at Learmonth and Gingin. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with G2 conditions observed at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at the planetary level. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 09-Aug due to the combined effects of a southern
hemisphere coronal hole and ongoing CME impact effects. G0 geomagnetic
conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected over 10-11 Aug due
to ongoing effects and a possible increase in coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 08-Aug were
mostly normal, with short periods of fair conditions at high
latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 09-11 Aug, with the possibility of minor degradations
at mid to high latitudes over the period. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on
8 August and is current for 8-10 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 08-Aug were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart, Brisbane and
Townsville during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values over 09-11 Aug, with a slight chance
of mild depressions in the southern Australian region over 09-10
Aug due to expected geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 41700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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