[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 06 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Aug 7 09:30:47 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1702UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Aug was at the R1 level
due to an M1.0 flare at 06/1702UT produced by AR4168 (N06W25,
beta-gamma-delta). There are currently nine numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR4168 is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has shown spot development over
the UT day. Newly numbered AR4172 (N11E54, beta) recently appeared
on the solar disk and has shown rapid spot growth over the 24-hour
period. AR4167 (N11W89, beta) is currently rotating over the
western limb. AR4169 (N23E45, beta) has shown mild growth in
its trailer spots. AR4173 (S18W25, beta) recently appeared on
the solar disk and has shown mild growth. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1 level over 07-09 Aug, with a chance of R2. S0 solar
proton conditions were observed on UT day 06-Aug. S0 solar proton
conditions are expected over 07-09 Aug. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. A filament eruption was
observed, visible in H-alpha imagery from 06/0535UT centred near
N37E30. An associated CME was subsequently observed, visible
in LASCO C2 coronograph imagery from 06/0624UT. Modelling indicates
this CME is not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day
06-Aug decreased, ranging from 365 to 445 km/s and is currently
near 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -4 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
over 07-09 Aug due to the combined effects of a southern hemisphere
coronal hole and two possible glancing CME impacts on 07-Aug
and 08-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11100212
Cocos Island 2 11110012
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 3 11110212
Learmonth 3 11100222
Alice Springs 2 11100112
Gingin 5 12200223
Canberra 2 11000202
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11100212
Hobart 2 11100211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 10000100
Casey 9 33310223
Mawson 17 32211236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 9 3311 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 15 G0, chance of G1
08 Aug 20 G0-G1
09 Aug 22 G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 07-Aug, with a chance of G1 due to a possible glancing CME
arrival. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 08-09
Aug due to the combined effects of a southern hemisphere coronal
hole and a possible glancing CME arrival on 08-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 06-Aug were
mostly normal, with periods of fair conditions at high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 07-09 Aug, with fair conditions at high latitudes and normal
to fair conditions at mid latitudes over 08-09 Aug. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on
4 August and is current for 5-7 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 07-Aug were near predicted
monthly values, with depressions observed in the northern Australian
region during local night hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart
and Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 07-09 Aug, with a slight chance
of mild depressions over 08-09 Aug due to expected geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 99600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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