[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 August 25 issued 2330 UT on 05 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Aug 6 09:30:48 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0212UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.4 1553UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Aug was at the R1 level
due to a M4.4 flare at 05/1553UT and M1.1 flare at 05/0212UT,
produced by AR4168 (N06W11, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4168 has continued to
develop
over the UT day and is currently the most magnetically complex
region on the disk with multiple delta spots. AR4161 (S14W34,
beta) has also shown growth over the UT day. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1 levels with a chance of R2 over 06-08 Aug. S0 solar
proton conditions were observed on UT day 05-Aug. S0 solar proton
conditions are expected over 06-08 Aug. A westward directed partial
halo CME was observed in SOHO C2 and STEREO A imagery from 05/1700UT
associated with the previously mentioned M4.4 flare produced
by solar region AR4168 and has been modelled as a glancing impact
on 08/1500UT +/- 12 hours. Two other narrow east and southwest
directed CMEs were also observed in both SOHO C2 and STEREO A
at 05/0800UT and are not considered geoeffective. The solar wind
speed on UT day 05-Aug remained mostly steady, ranging from 470
to 410 km/s and is currently near 410 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -7 to +7 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain steady near background levels on 06-Aug
before possibly increasing from late on the 07-Aug and over 08-Aug
from combined effects of a coronal hole speed wind stream and
two possible glancing CME impacts on 07-Aug and 08-Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12112221
Cocos Island 4 22011121
Darwin 6 13112222
Townsville 7 22113222
Learmonth 6 22112222
Alice Springs 5 12112221
Gingin 6 22102231
Canberra 5 12013221
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12013221
Hobart 5 12013221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 02013211
Casey 11 24323222
Mawson 29 63323255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 10 G0
07 Aug 15 G0, chance G1
08 Aug 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated periods of
G1-G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 06 Aug. G0, chance G1 on 07-Aug and G0-G1 on 08-Aug geomagnetic
conditions are expected due to combined effects of coronal hole
high speed wind stream and two possible glancing CME impacts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 05-Aug were
mostly normal, with periods of fair conditions at high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 06-08 Aug, with the chance of mild disturbances at high
latitudes on 08-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on
4 August and is current for 5-7 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 06-Aug were near predicted
monthly values, with depressions observed in the northern Australian
region during local night hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart,
Canberra, Townsville and Perth during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 06-08 Aug,
with a slight chance of mild depressions on 08-Aug in the southern
Australian region due to possible geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list