[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 August 25 issued 2332 UT on 04 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Aug 5 09:32:31 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0457UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Aug was at the R1 level
due to an M2.0 flare at 04/0457UT, produced by AR4168 (N06E06,
beta-gamma-delta). There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR4168 has shown spot growth
over the UT day and become more magnetically complex with possibly
up to two delta spots. AR4161 (S16W27, beta) and AR4165 (N12E07,
beta) have both shown some growth over the UT day. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R1 levels with a chance of R2 over 05-07
Aug. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 04-Aug.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 05-07 Aug. A diffuse
CME was observed in SOHO C2 and STEREO A imagery from 04/0800UT
and is likely associated with the M2.0 flare produced by solar
region AR4168 and has been modelled as a possible glancing impact
on 07/0800UT +/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Aug
mildly decreased, ranging from 530 to 430 km/s and is currently
near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -7 to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain steady
near background levels over 05-06 Aug before possibly increasing
from late on the 07 Aug as a coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 11222221
Cocos Island 3 11211210
Darwin 6 12222222
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 6 11222321
Alice Springs 4 02122211
Gingin 6 11222321
Canberra 5 11222211
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 01223221
Hobart 5 01223220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 8 00233420
Casey 16 24332521
Mawson 26 13332645
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2112 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 10 G0
06 Aug 10 G0
07 Aug 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 observed at Mawson and G1 at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 05-06 Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 07 Aug due to combined effects of coronal hole high
speed wind stream and possible glancing CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 04-Aug were
mostly normal, with isolated periods of fair conditions at high
latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 05-07 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 95 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 95 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on
3 August and is current for 4-6 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 04-Aug were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 05-07 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 85400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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