[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 August 25 issued 2332 UT on 03 Aug 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Aug 4 09:32:24 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 1357UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Aug was at the R1 level
due to an M2.9 flare at 03/1457UT, produced by AR4168 (N06E16,
beta-gamma-delta). There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR4168
has shown spot growth over the UT day and become more magnetically
complex. AR4167 (N11W51, beta) has shown decay in its trailer
spots and spot development in its intermediate spots. An unnumbered
region recently rotated over the eastern limb near N22E85 (alpha)
and appears stable. A second unnumbered region recently appeared
near N05W22 (alpha) and is stable. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 04-06 Aug. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 03-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 04-06 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed,
however additional coronagraph imagery is required to confirm
this. A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery
from 03/0244UT centred near N28E13. No CME has currently been
observed in association with this eruption. Additionally, no
CME has currently been observed in association with the aforementioned
M2.9 flare, however this will be confirmed once sufficient coronagraph
imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Aug
increased, ranging from 410 to 565 km/s and is currently near
480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -9 to +9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline
toward background levels over 04-06 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11101231
Cocos Island 5 11111231
Darwin 7 22211232
Townsville 6 21211232
Learmonth 6 21211231
Alice Springs 4 11100232
Gingin 5 21101232
Canberra 4 11101231
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 11101231
Hobart 5 11201231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 21102130
Casey 11 33322232
Mawson 21 44211263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 ---- ----
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 12 G0
05 Aug 8 G0
06 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 04-06 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 03-Aug were
mostly normal, with periods of fair conditions at high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 04-06 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 88
Aug 96
Sep 93
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 95 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 95 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on
3 August and is current for 4-6 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 03-Aug were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart
and Learmonth during local night hours. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 04-06 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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