[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 April 25 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Apr 14 09:30:59 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0405UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.3 0452UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0652UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 0955UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1542UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.2 1851UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.6 2202UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity R1, chance R2 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 150/105 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Apr was at the R1 level
due to an M1.3 flare at 13/0006UT, M1.0 flare at 13/0130UT, M1.1
flare at 13/0405UT, M2.3 flare at 13/0452UT, M1.0 flare at 13/0652UT,
M1.4 flare at 13/0955UT, an M1.0 flare at 13/1132UT, M1.2 flare
at 13/1542UT, an M3.2 flare at 13/1851UT and an M1.6 flare at
13/2202UT. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR4055 (N07W73, beta) is the most
significant sunspot group and was responsible for the vast majority
of the flares of the UT day, although this region will rotate
off the solar disk by 15-Apr. AR4060 (N09E23, beta-gamma) showed
trailer movement over the UT day and is magnetically complex,
although this region has no history of flaring. All other sunspot
groups were either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 on 14-Apr. R0-R1 level
activity is expected over 15-16 Apr once AR4055 has rotated off
the solar disk. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 13-Apr. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 14-16 Apr. A southeast directed CME is visible from 13/0012UT
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This CME presents the chance of
a glancing impact on 16-Apr at 0600UT +/- 12 hours, although
it is likely this CME will combine with the one described below.
A partial halo CME directed to the south is visible from 13/0812UT
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery, although a smaller component of
the same CME is visible earlier in the day. This CME is associated
with a filament lift off visible from 13/0449UT in SDO, GOES
SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. Modelling suggests this CME will impact
Earth on 15-Apr at 1900UT +/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed
was in slight decline on 13-Apr. The wind speed mostly ranged
between 575 km/s and 405 km/s. The current wind speed is around
420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+4 to -6 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to decline slowly towards
background levels on 14-Apr. An increase is expected on 15-Apr
due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 13-Apr.
A further increase is expected on 16-Apr due to anticipated impacts
from three CMEs first observed on 12, 13 and 14-Apr, although
these CMEs may combine for a single impact on 15-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 32233222
Cocos Island 7 22223121
Darwin 9 31233222
Townsville 10 32233222
Learmonth 12 32234232
Alice Springs 11 32233232
Gingin 13 42234132
Canberra 10 32233222
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 11 32243122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie Island 18 33345232
Casey 13 44322132
Mawson 43 45533275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 58 (Unsettled)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 0 3333 3445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 10 G0
15 Apr 30 G1-G2
16 Apr 20 G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 13 April
and is current for 16-17 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 13-Apr. Mostly G1
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with a period of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 14-Apr. G1-G2 conditions are expected on 15-Apr
due to an anticipated impact from a partial halo CME first observed
on 13-Apr. G1 conditions are expected on 16-Apr due to possible
further CME impacts combined with ongoing effects from 15-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Fair-normal Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Apr were
fair to poor for the first half of the day, recovering towards
fair to normal by the end of the day. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be mostly normal on 14-Apr and for the first
half of 15-Apr. Degraded conditions are expected from late on
15-Apr and over 16-Apr due to anticipated geomagnetic activity
due to several anticipated CME impacts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
16 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Apr were near predicted values to 15% enhanced
in the northern Australian region. Depressed conditions of up
to 25% were observed in the southern Australian region. Spread-F
was observed in Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on 14-Apr. Near predicted monthly values to 15%
depressed conditions are expected over 15-16 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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