[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 April 25 issued 2331 UT on 14 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Apr 15 09:31:24 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0605UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M4.2 0646UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity R1,chance R2 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Apr was at the R1 level.
Solar region AR4055 (N07W89, beta-gamma-delta) produced both
the M4.2 and M1.4 flare events. This region is rotating over
the northwest solar limb and also produced several C class flares.
The other region of interest, solar region AR4060 (N09E09, beta-gamma)
has been mostly flare quiet, with some spot redistribution and
is possibly starting to decay. A new small to medium sized solar
region is rotating onto the solar disk at S04E80. There are currently
four numbered sunspot regions and one unnumbered region on visible
on the solar disk. All other sunspot groups were either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level,
with a chance of R2 on 15-Apr, with a behind the limb flare possible
from AR4055. R0-R1 level flare activity is expected over 16-17
Apr. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT
day 14-Apr. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 15-17 Apr. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed on
14-Apr. A narrow southward CME was observed from 14/1500UT which
could not be correlated to on disk activity. CMEs from two recent
filament eruptions on late 12-Apr and on 13-Apr have been modelled
to be Earth directed and are expected to arrive late in the UT
day on 15-Apr and first half of the UT day on 16-Apr. The second
arrival is expected to be weaker. The solar wind speed on UT
day 14-Apr slowly declined. The wind speed mostly ranged between
471 km/s and 389 km/s. The current wind speed is around 390 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -7
nT. A moderate to strong solar wind shock is expected late in
the UT day on 15-Apr due to an anticipated impact from a CME
first observed on 13-Apr. A weaker shock arrival is possible
during the first half of the UT day on 16-Apr. The ACE EPAM low
energy ion CME precursor channel is currently flat, possibly
indicating a later than modelled arrival.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 23213322
Cocos Island 7 23212222
Darwin 8 23213222
Townsville 12 34213223
Learmonth 12 33213333
Alice Springs 9 23213322
Gingin 12 33213333
Canberra 9 23312322
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 11 23323322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 19 35434321
Casey 20 45422333
Mawson 44 36432656
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 4432 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 20 Initially G0, then G1-G2 late in UT day.
16 Apr 30 G1-G2
17 Apr 16 G1 periods possible early in UT day then G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 14 April
and is current for 15-16 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 14-Apr. G1-G2 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G1-G2 conditions are expected
from late in the UT day on 15-Apr and on 16-Apr due to an anticipated
impact from a partial halo CME first observed on 13-Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Apr Normal Fair Fair-poor
17 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Apr were
fair to normal, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes.
Degraded HF conditions for middle to high latitudes are expected
from late on 15-Apr and over 16-Apr due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity from expected CME arrivals.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Southeast depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
16 Apr 75 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 95 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on
14 April and is current for 14-15 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-Apr were generally
near predicted values with depressions of 25% observed during
local night hours for the southeast Australian region. Spread-F
was observed during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be initially near predicted monthly values on 15-Apr, with
depressed conditions possible late in the UT day for the southern
Australian region. Southern Australian region MUFs are expected
to be depressed 15-20% on 16-Apr if CME induced geomagnetic storm
activity eventuates late in the UT day on 15-Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list