[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 April 25 issued 2330 UT on 12 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Apr 13 09:30:57 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 11/2220UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.1 0445UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0549UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0719UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.0 1117UT possible lower European
M2.7 1143UT possible lower European
M1.3 1512UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 2203UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Apr was R1, with several R1
level events from AR4055 (N07W58, beta-gamma) and one from AR4060
(N09E36, beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR4055 has continued showing substantial growth
over the past day, and maintains being the most complex region
on the disk. Most other regions in the northern solar hemisphere
have showed some growth over the past day. Solar activity is
expected to be R1-R2 over 13-15 Apr.
Several CMEs wee observed on UT day 12-Apr, however a majority were
limb or farside events. A filament eruption was observed from 1120 UT
and was associated with a frontside CME, however it is not expected to
be geoeffective. Slow and faint CME material can be seen coming off the
northwest limb from 11/1812 UT onwards, which may be coming from the vicinity
of AR4055, and this may having a weak but lingering connection
to Earth from 16-Apr onwards.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 12-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 13-15 Apr. The solar
wind environment on UT day 12-Apr was mildly disturbed, likely due
to ongoing but waning coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed was
on a slow incline and ranged from 375 to 532 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -9 nT. The solar wind environment is expected
to be mostly steady over 13-15 Apr, although the material slowly
coming from the northwest of the Sun may have a weak but lingering
impact from 16-Apr onwards. A small coronal hole remnant may
cause a brief increase to the solar wind on 14-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 32223323
Cocos Island 6 22221222
Darwin 8 31222223
Townsville 11 32133323
Learmonth 12 32223333
Alice Springs 10 32222323
Gingin 13 32223343
Canberra 10 21233323
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 12 22233423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 31 31355643
Casey 13 43332223
Mawson 31 43443555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 4322 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 10 G0
14 Apr 8 G0
15 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Apr. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 13-15 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 12-Apr were
normal to fair for most of the day across all latitudes. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
13-15 Apr, although mild degradations are possible to continue
at all latitudes over the period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
14 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
15 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on
10 April and is current for 11-13 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 12-Apr were near predicted
values to 20% enhanced, although some moderate depressions were
observed in the southern region. Spread-F was observed in Hobart.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 13-15 Ape,
with enhancements up to 15-20%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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