[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 April 25 issued 2331 UT on 11 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Apr 12 09:31:18 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: R1
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Apr was R1, with two M1
flare from AR4055 (N07W48, beta-gamma), which has shown substantial
growth in the past day and dominates as the most complex region
on the disk. AR4058 (N17W51, beta) has shown some minor growth
over the past day, and all other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 12-14
Apr, with a chance for R2 from 4055.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 11-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 12-14 Apr.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 11-Apr.
The solar wind environment on UT day 11-Apr was steady. The solar
wind speed ranged from 524 to 387 km/s, but was mostly near 450 km/s
all day. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +7 to -7 nT. Earth may
slowly lose connection with a coronal hole over the next few
days, and the solar wind speed is expected to be slightly elevated
but decline to background levels over 12-13 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 22222233
Cocos Island 7 22222123
Darwin 7 22222132
Townsville 9 22222233
Learmonth 8 22222133
Alice Springs 8 22222232
Gingin 9 22222233
Canberra 6 22122222
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 10 33223222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 15 33244133
Casey 17 34522233
Mawson 25 44333255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 17 4342 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 10 G0
13 Apr 8 G0
14 Apr 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Apr. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 12-14 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 11-Apr were
normal to fair, with some degradations at high latitudes. HF
radio propagation conditions are expected to be generally normal
over 12-14 Apr, with some mild degradations possible in high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
13 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
14 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on
10 April and is current for 11-13 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-Apr were near predicted values in the Australian
region. Spread F was observed in Hobart during local dawn hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 12-14 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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