[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 April 25 issued 2330 UT on 10 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Apr 11 09:30:58 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Apr was R0. Solar region
AR4055 (N07W31, beta-gamma-delta) has rapidly grown in the past
24 hours. Solar region AR4060 (N09E66, beta-gamma) has exhibited
growth in its leader spots. Previous region of interest AR4048
(S15W83, beta) has now significantly decayed as it approaches
the western solar limb and the trailer spots of AR4054 (S12W52,
beta) have started to decay. The largest flare was a C5.3 flare
from AR4060 at 10/0752UT. There are currently seven numbered
sunspot groups on the solar disk. Other regions are small and
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R1,
chance R2 over 11-13 Apr, primarily due to the possibility of
isolated flare activity from AR4055 and AR4060. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 10-Apr. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 11-13 Apr. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed. A north northeast CME was observed from 10/1624UT
and is considered a far side event. The solar wind environment
on UT day 10-Apr was moderately enhanced with an overall slow
declining trend from a recent solar coronal hole wind stream.
The solar wind speed ranged from 439 km/s to 532 km/s and is
currently at 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +6 to -7 nT. Solar wind 27 day recurrence patterns suggest
that the solar wind will gradually decline over 11-13 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 32321223
Cocos Island 6 22220123
Darwin 8 32221123
Townsville 9 32321223
Learmonth 8 32221223
Alice Springs 8 32221223
Gingin 11 32320234
Canberra 9 32320223
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 11 32421223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie Island 17 34531223
Casey 16 43522223
Mawson 47 55433276
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 0 5344 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 18 G0, chance G1
12 Apr 10 G0
13 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Apr. In the Antarctic region isolated G1-G3
periods were observed. Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 11-13 Apr as the mild influence of a coronal hole
wind stream declines. There is a chance of an isolated G1 period
on 11-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on 10-Apr were generally
fair to normal, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes
early in the UT day. HF conditions are expected to be fair to
normal on 11-Apr, with fair conditions at high latitudes. HF
conditions are expected to be normal for 12-13 Apr. Isolated
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Hobart depressed 20-30% early in UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
12 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
13 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on
10 April and is current for 11-13 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 10-Apr were generally
near predicted values to 20% enhanced. MUFs at Hobart were depressed
20-30% during the period 10/0000-0300UT then recovered. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart and Perth during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced over
11-13 Apr. Isolated fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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