[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 April 25 issued 2331 UT on 07 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Apr 8 09:31:40 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 7-Apr was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR4048 (S15W46, gamma) has grown; while its
main leader spot appears to have decayed, several stronger trailer
spots have developed, and this remains the largest and most unstable
region on the disk. AR4045 (S13W70, beta), AR4054 (S12W15, beta)
and AR4055 (N09E11, beta) have all grown, separated and matured.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2 over
8-10 Apr.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 7-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 7-Apr,
although a small increased was observed from 1520 UT. The cause
is not clear, it may be from a farside event or else anomalous
data, and S0 solar radiation storm conditions are generally expected
over 8-10 Apr with a chance for S1.
The solar wind environment on UT day 7-Apr was mildly perturbed.
The solar wind speed was on a slight decline and ranged from 628
km/s to 462 km/s, currently near 500 km/s The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -5 nT. The
solar wind is expected to be disturbed over 8-10 Apr due to several
incoming coronal holes, although conditions may fluctuate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22112323
Cocos Island 7 22112322
Darwin 9 33111323
Townsville 9 23112323
Learmonth 10 32122333
Alice Springs 7 22111323
Gingin 12 32122433
Canberra 7 22112322
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 2-------
Hobart 8 22112332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 9 22123332
Casey 13 43321323
Mawson 33 45432356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 0 5323 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 15 G0, chance G1
09 Apr 20 G1, chance G2
10 Apr 15 G0-G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 6 April and
is current for 9-10 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 7-Apr. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are possible on 8-Apr late in the day, possibly developing in
to G2 by 9-Apr. Conditions may fluctuate but G1 periods are also
expected on 10-Apr due to coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 7-Apr were
normal to fair, with degradations in the northern hemisphere.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal to
fair over 8-10 Apr due to persistent coronal hole activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
09 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
10 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 7-Apr were mostly near predicted values, with
enhancements in the north and depressions in the south. Spread
F was observed in Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 15-20% depressed over 8-10 Apr
due to persistent coronal hole activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 619 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 246000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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