[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 April 25 issued 2330 UT on 06 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Apr 7 09:30:55 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Apr was R0. Solar region
AR4048 (S15W29, beta) which is currently the largest on disk
region continues to decay. Solar region AR4054 (S12E02, beta)
is growing rapidly. Solar region AR4046 (N05W44, alpha) has been
stable. There are currently nine numbered sunspots on the solar
disk. All other sunspot regions are small and are either stable
or in decay. An area of emission is visible in SDO193 imagery
at solar latitude N12 on the eastern solar limb but currently
does not appear to be large. Solar activity is expected to be
R0-R1 over 07-09 Apr. An R1 flare is possible from region AR4054.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 06-Apr. Non Earth
directed CMEs were observed to the north from 06/0412UT and southeast
from 06/0812UT. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 06-Apr, with a minor enhancement in proton flux of
0.95PFU observed late in the UT day, possibly from yesterday's
eastward CME. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 07-09 Apr. The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Apr was mostly
elevated and steady with a declining trend late in the UT day
and ranged from 575 km/sec to 727 km/sec. The solar wind speed
is currently near 580 km/sec. The elevated wind speed is due
to a solar coronal hole wind stream. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to slowly decline on 07-Apr. Another coronal hole
located in the southeast solar quadrant is approaching the solar
central meridian. Solar 27 day recurrent patterns of the IMF
Bz component suggest that periods of southward IMF conditions
may be expected on 08-09-Apr, followed by a moderate elevation
in solar wind speed over 10-11 Apr associated with this coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 32233342
Cocos Island 11 32232332
Darwin 13 32233342
Townsville 17 33243343
Learmonth 23 53233453
Alice Springs 14 32233343
Gingin 20 52233443
Canberra 15 32243342
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 32243342
Hobart 15 32243342
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 26 33455442
Casey 32 55643333
Mawson 65 75544755
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 4544 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 8 G0
08 Apr 15 G0, chance G1 late in UT day
09 Apr 20 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 6 April and
is current for 9-10 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06-Apr. In the Antarctic region
G3 periods were observed at Mawson and G1-G2 periods were observed
at Casey and G1 conditions were observed at Macquarie Island.
A single period of G1 planetary geomagnetic conditions was observed
early in the UT day. G0 conditions are expected on 07-Apr and
are also generally expected on 08-Apr. A 27 day recurrent interplanetary
magnetic field pattern of southward IMF Bz conditions suggests
an increase in geomagnetic activity to G1, chance G2 conditions
for 09-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 06-Apr were
normal to poor, with degraded conditions at middle to high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be fair to normal
on 07-Apr, with fair conditions expected for high latitudes and
normal conditions expected for low to middle latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 45% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Apr were depressed 20% in the southern Australian
region and near predicted monthly values in the northern Australian
region. MUFs at Perth were depressed 50% early in UT day. Strong
spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic
E was observed at east coast sites during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 07-09 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 549 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 18700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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