[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 April 25 issued 2333 UT on 05 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Apr 6 09:33:52 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 2005UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Apr was R1 due to an isolated
M1 flare from solar region AR4048 (S15W12, beta-gamma). This
region appears to be declining and has recently increased in
magnetic complexity, though these mixed polarity fields are small
and weak. Solar region AR4046 (N05W32, alpha) also flared at
near the same time so there is some ambiguity with the solar
region of origin of this flare. Smaller solar region AR4054 (S12E13,
beta) is growing. There are currently ten numbered sunspots on
the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 06-08 Apr.
Solar activity was observed on the northeast solar limb early
in the UT day. Plasma emission and loop structures were visible
in SDO193 imagery from 05/0656UT. A possible erupting prominence
was visible in SDO304 from 05/0600UT on the northeast limb at
solar latitude N40. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT
day 05-Apr. A large CME was observed off the northeast solar
limb from 05/0412UT. Due to the on/behind the eastern solar limb
location of this CME event it is not expected to be significantly
geoeffective. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 05-Apr. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 06-08 Apr. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Apr further
increased and ranged from 550 to 700 km/s. The solar wind speed
is currently near 580 km/sec. The solar wind data was noisy making
true speed assessment difficult. The increase in wind speed is
due to a solar coronal hole located now well west of the solar
central meridian in the northwest solar quadrant. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -11 nT. The
solar wind speed is now expected to be moderate to be moderate
to strong on 06-Apr and then declining to background conditions
on 07-Apr. Solar 27 day recurrent patterns of the IMF Bz component
suggest that southward IMF conditions may be expected during
08-09 Mar. These conditions on the past two rotations have been
followed by a moderate elevation in solar wind speed over 09-11
Mar associated with a coronal hole. However, the current on disk
coronal hole structures appear somewhat different on this solar
rotation reducing confidence in this 27 day persistence forecast
of southward IMF conditions for this solar rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 19 33344343
Cocos Island 15 34333332
Darwin 17 33344332
Townsville 25 43445343
Learmonth 27 34454353
Alice Springs 22 33445333
Gingin 27 43354453
Canberra 19 33344343
Kennaook Cape Grim 25 34454343
Hobart 23 34354343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 52 45575553
Casey 26 45543333
Mawson 76 75664575
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 44
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 33 4444 4545
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 16 G1, declining to G0
07 Apr 8 G0
08 Apr 17 G0, chance G1 late in UT day
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Apr. In the Antarctic region G1-G3 conditions
were observed at Macquarie Island and Maswon and G1 conditions
observed at Casey. A single period G2 planetary geomagnetic conditions
was observed early in the UT day. Two periods G1 planetary conditions
were also observed. G1 geomagnetic conditions are initially expected
on 06-Apr due to a wind stream from a small equatorial coronal
hole, then declining to G0. G0 conditions are expected on 07-Apr.
A 27 day recurrent interplanetary magnetic field pattern of southward
IMF Bz conditions which has preceded a moderate speed coronal
hole wind pattern on previous rotations, suggests that G1, chance
G2 conditions may be experienced over 8-9 Mar, however coronal
hole structures appear different on this rotation.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 05-Apr were
fair to normal, with degraded conditions at middle to high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be fair on 06-Apr
for middle to high latitudes. Normal conditions are expected
to low latitudes. Improved HF conditions expected for 07-Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 45% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 70 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 5 April
and is current for 6 Apr only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region on UT day 05-Apr were initially near
predicted values to 15% enhanced. However, Hobart was 30% depressed
early in the UT day on 05-Apr during the interval 05/000-0300UT.
Southern Australian region MUFs are depressed 30% after local
dawn this morning. Strong spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. Southern Australian region MUFs are expected
to be depressed 30% for the local day today. Northern Australian
region MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 10.9 p/cc Temp: 295000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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