[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 April 25 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Apr 9 09:30:57 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 2222UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 8-Apr was R1, with an isolated
M1 flare from AR4048 (S15W59, beta-gamma). There are currently seven
numbered sunspots on the solar disk. The most dominant spot, AR4048
has decayed over the past day. AR4054 (S12W28, beta) and AR4055
(N06W03, beta) has both grown and appeared to have reached maturity
in the past day. All other sunspot regions are stable. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 9-11 Apr.
A CME was observed from 0600 UT from near AR4057 (N08E42, alpha)
associated with a filament eruption. Two others were observed off the
eastern limb, likely farside. None of these CMEs are expected to be
geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 8-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 9-11 Apr.
The solar wind environment on UT day 9-Apr was mildly disturbed
due to coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed was trending
down from 450 km/s before connecting with a coronal hole and
reached a peak of 563 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +11 to -11 nT with a brief 20 minute period of
southward Bz at 1240 UT. The solar wind is expected to remain
enhanced over 9-11 Apr, but possibly fluctuating, as there are
two coronal holes with possible connection over the period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 14 23324333
Cocos Island 13 23323333
Darwin 13 32323333
Townsville 15 33324333
Learmonth 18 33324344
Alice Springs 13 22324333
Gingin 23 22324455
Canberra 14 23324333
Kennaook Cape Grim - --------
Hobart 14 13324333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 20 23425433
Casey 29 54434345
Mawson 70 46634386
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3322 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 20 G0-G1, chance G2
10 Apr 15 G0-G1
11 Apr 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 6 April and
is current for 9-10 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 8-Apr, while a single period
of G1 was observed in the planetary scale due to a very brief
period of southward solar wind parameter Bz. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 9-11 Apr due to connection to two
coronal holes in close proximity. There may be a slight chance
for G2 over this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally normal
at low and middle latitudes, with some degradations in high latitudes.
Heavier degradations set in after 1500 UT. HF radio propagation
conditions are expected to fluctuate from normal to fair over
9-11 Apr due to two coronal holes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
10 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
11 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on
8 April and is current for 9-10 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 8-Apr were near predicted
values. Spread-F was observed in Perth during local pre-dawn
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values 15% depressed
over 9-11 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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