[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 April 25 issued 2330 UT on 02 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Apr 3 10:30:59 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 01/2231UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity R0-R2, chance R3 R0-R2 R0-R2
Fadeouts Possible Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 176/130
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 2-Apr was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR4044 (N17W27, beta) and AR4049 (S31E07,
beta) have shown some minor growth and maturation. AR4048 (S15E23,
beta-gamma) dominates as the most complex region on the disk,
however has been relatively stable in the last day. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R2 over 3-5 Apr, although a chance for isolated
R3 events is possible from AR4048.
No significant CMEs were observed on UT day 2-Apr. S1 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 2-Apr, trending towards S0.
S0-S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 3-5 Apr.
The solar wind environment on UT day 2-Apr wild mildly perturbed.
The solar wind speed ranged between 500 and 400 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -10 nT. Bz was oriented southward
for almost 12 hours on 2-Apr, possibly from the passing by CME on 1-Apr
and also a small coronal hole now obscured. The solar wind is
expected to quieten to near background conditions on 3-Apr, but
may increase due to another small coronal hole over 4-5 Apr,
likely later in the period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 33233133
Cocos Island 8 22222133
Darwin 12 33233133
Townsville 14 33243133
Learmonth 14 33233243
Alice Springs 11 32233133
Gingin 11 32232233
Canberra 12 22243133
Kennaook Cape Grim 14 23343133
Hobart 15 33343133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 25 24464233
Casey 17 44432233
Mawson 29 54453344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 0 1010 ----
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 10 G0
04 Apr 8 G0, slight chance G1
05 Apr 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 1 April and
is current for 4-5 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 2-Apr. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 3-5 Apr, with a chance for G1 at
the end of the period due to a small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1425UT 31/03, Ended at 0810UT 02/04
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
05 Apr Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 2-Apr were
generally good, especially in the southern hemisphere. Some depressions
persisted in mid to high latitudes in the northern hemisphere,
becoming more prominent towards the end of the day. Some polar
cap absorption may have been experienced HF radio propagation
conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 3-5 Apr, with
mild degradations in high latitudes, particularly on 5-Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 153
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 148 About 15% above predicted monthly values to 10%
depressed
04 Apr 145 About 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 145 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on
31 March and is current for 1-3 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 2-Apr in the Australian region were generally
near predicted values to 20% enhanced, although some polar cap
absorption may have been observed at high latitudes. MUFs are
expected to be initially enhanced on UT day 3-Apr but may be
on a slightly depressing trend due to prolonged Bz south conditions
yesterday. Otherwise conditions are expected to remain near predicted
values to slightly enhanced until the onset of a small coronal
hole, likely UT day 5-Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 58000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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