[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 April 25 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Apr 4 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 178/131 176/130 176/130
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 3-Apr was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspots on
the solar disk. AR4044 (N17W44, beta) and AR4049 (S31W09, beta)
have shown some slight growth in the past day. AR4048 (S15E05,
beta-gamma) maintains being the largest and most complex region
on the disk, however has been generally stable in the past 24
hours while its positive and negative poles continue to separate.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2 over 4-6
Apr.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 3-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 3-Apr,
with the >10 MeV protons continuing their downward trend towards
background levels. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 4-6 Apr.
The solar wind speed was steady on UT day 3-Apr and ranged from 406
to 476 km/s. The solar wind strength was on a slow incline for most
of the day with a peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
of 11 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) ranging from +8
to -11 nT. Bz was oriented southward for several periods of the day.
The solar wind speed is expected to be disturbed over 4-5 Apr due
to the onset of a small coronal hole, which based on recurrence
patterns, was associated with a co-rotating interaction region.
The solar wind may begin to return to background conditions by 6-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 14 32333243
Cocos Island 12 22323234
Darwin 12 32332233
Townsville 12 32332233
Learmonth 18 43333244
Alice Springs 12 32332233
Gingin 18 43333244
Canberra 13 22333243
Kennaook Cape Grim 16 32433243
Hobart 17 33433243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 27 32545353
Casey 23 35543233
Mawson 30 54533354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22 4444 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 12 G0-G1
05 Apr 14 G0-G1
06 Apr 10 G
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 1 April and
is current for 4-5 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 3-Apr. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed both in the Antarctic region and the planetary
average, due to sustained periods of southward oriented solar
wind parameter Bz. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 4-5 Apr due to the onset of a small coronal hole. Conditions
are expected to ease by 6-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1425UT 31/03, Ended at 0810UT 02/04
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 3-Apr were
fair to normal, with polar cap absorption improving to near normal.
Some isolated areas observed depressions in the northern hemisphere
otherwise. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
normal to fair over 4-6 Apr due to the onset of a small coronal
hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 120 Near predicted values to 15% depressed
05 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
06 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 3-Apr were near predicted values. Sporadic-E
was observed in Niue during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 15-20% depressed over 4-6 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 12.0 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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