[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 April 25 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Apr 2 10:30:56 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.6 0646UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.5 2231UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 182/135
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 176/130 176/130
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Apr was R2 due to an M5.6
flare from AR4046 (N05E20, beta-gamma). The flare was from an
area southeast of the regions single large spot. This region
has recently been flare quiet and also produced the R3 flare
back on 28-Mar. This region has been largely stable with a reduction
in penumbral area south of the single large spot and a reduction
in its very small trailer spots. Large solar region AR4048 (S15E44,
beta-gamma) produced an M2.5 R1 flare and has grown in longitudinal
extent with an increase in leader spot umbral area and general
increase in penumbral area. Smaller regions AR4044 (N17W14, beta)
and AR4049 (S31E19, beta) have shown slight growth and produced
minor C flare activity. Other regions are small and are either
stable or in decay. There are currently seven numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. Solar flare activity is expected to
be R1-R2 over 02-04 Apr. There is a chance for an isolated R3
flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
An eastward directed far side CME was observed from 01/1824UT.
S2 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 02-Apr with
the solar proton flux now declining. The solar proton flux is
possibly from the recent east limb X1 flare on 28-Mar. S1 declining
to S0 conditions are expected on 02-Apr and S0 conditions are
expected on 03-Apr. The solar wind environment on UT day 01-Apr
was steady but variable with a possible very weak indistinct
CME signature observed at 01/1730UT with the total field becoming
subsequently slightly enhanced and a slight increase in speed
was then also observed. The solar wind speed ranged from 473
to 353 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +9 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be slightly enhanced today and may decline on 03-Apr. A small
equatorial coronal hole is now just past solar central meridian
and is smaller on this solar rotation. An moderate increase in
solar wind speed is expected over 04-06 Apr from this hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11201021
Cocos Island 3 12201020
Darwin 5 23211021
Townsville 5 11212122
Learmonth 5 21311121
Alice Springs 3 11201021
Gingin 4 11301121
Canberra 2 01101012
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11101011
Hobart 2 11101011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 17 34433233
Mawson 10 31312323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1122 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 8 G0
03 Apr 10 G0
04 Apr 17 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 1 April and
is current for 4-5 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day 01-Apr. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are exected over 02-03 Apr, with G0-G1 conditions
over 04-05 Apr due to a wind stream from a small equatorial coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 31/1425UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Poor-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 01-Apr for low to middle latitudes, with a solar radiation
storm increasing absorption by up to 2.5db at polar latitudes.
This S2-Moderate event has now declined to S1-Minor and is expected
to end today. Antarctic Riometers observed a peak absorption
of 2.0-2.5db during the interval 01/0300-0900UT. HF conditions
at other latitudes are expected to be generally normal. Shortwave
fadeouts are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 140 About 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 140 About 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr 140 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on
31 March and is current for 1-3 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 01-Apr were near predicted
values to 25% enhanced. Ionospheric equatorial scintillation
was observed at Weipa during the interval 01/1105-1120UT. A shortwave
fadeout was observed 01/0639-0701UT. MUFs are generally expected
to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced over 02-04 Apr. Shortwave
fadeouts are expected on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 57300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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